Results & model track record

Final results across every competition we cover, each shown against the model's pre-match prediction — logged before kickoff, so the verdict is honest. ✓ Result = the model called the 1X2 outcome, ★ Exact = it nailed the scoreline.

This page is the match-by-match record. For whether the probabilities themselves hold up — calibration, and how the model scores against an uninformed baseline — see the model accuracy report.

48%
Correct result (1X2)
10%
Exact scoreline
5159
Predictions settled
Where the model reads best top 5 of 60 competitions

Ranked by skill — how much of the available ground the model gained on a forecast that knew nothing and split every match evenly. Not by hit rate: a league of one-sided fixtures is easier to call, so a high hit rate there is partly a fact about the league rather than about the model.

CompetitionSkillCorrect 1X2Settled
Pro League+19.1%59.4%64
Primera División+18.1%72.4%29
HNL+17.9%63.0%54
Super Liga+17.6%56.5%69
BundesligaAustria+17.0%61.7%60

Competitions with at least 25 settled pre-match predictions. At these sample sizes a hit rate carries a margin of roughly ±12 to ±18 points, so read the order as a guide and not as a standing. Full table, all 60 competitions, ordered by hit rate →

The last 400 finished matches, each with the model's pre-match call and whether it landed.