Komárno
vs
AS Trencin
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Komárno 1–0 AS Trencin
The model makes it 46% Komárno, 29% draw, 25% AS Trencin — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Komárno 1.41, AS Trencin 0.90.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Komárno are 10th on 6 points from 10 games; AS Trencin are bottom on 5 points from 9 games — Super Liga.
- Komárno have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FK Košice.
- AS Trencin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dukla Banská Bystrica.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended AS Trencin 1–1 Komárno.
More Slovak Super Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Komárno vs AS Trencin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Komárno at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Komárno vs AS Trencin
Komárno
- D1-1away to FK Košice10 October 2026
- L1-2Slovan Bratislava19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Podbrezová13 September 2026
- D0-0Skalica5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Dukla Banská Bystrica29 August 2026
AS Trencin
- L0-1Dukla Banská Bystrica10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Žilina19 September 2026
- L1-4Dunajska Streda12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Zemplín Michalovce5 September 2026
- W2-1Ružomberok29 August 2026
What these results say
- Komárno did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Komárno scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Komárno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AS Trencin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- AS Trencin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- AS Trencin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Komárno | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 12 | AS Trencin | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Komárno
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
AS Trencin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 77% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Komárno vs AS Trencin
- 25 July 2026AS Trencin 1–1 KomárnoSuper Liga
- 3 May 2026AS Trencin 1–2 KomárnoSuper Liga
- 5 April 2026Komárno 0–1 AS TrencinSuper Liga
- 25 October 2025AS Trencin 0–1 KomárnoSuper Liga
- 26 July 2025Komárno 1–2 AS TrencinSuper Liga
- 3 May 2025Komárno 0–0 AS TrencinSuper Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Komárno carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.12 for AS Trencin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Komárno and 0.90 for AS Trencin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Komárno rate 0.42 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AS Trencin rate 0.48 and 2.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Komárno the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Komárno against 0.90 for AS Trencin. Komárno's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.07 for AS Trencin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Komárno at home · AS Trencin away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Komárno 10, AS Trencin 9.
Komárno score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); AS Trencin have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Komárno
- at Spartak Trnava31 Oct · Super Ligawin 14%
- vs Zemplín Michalovce8 Nov · Super Ligawin 38%
- at Dunajska Streda21 Nov · Super Ligawin 10%
- vs Žilina28 Nov · Super Ligawin 31%
AS Trencin
- vs Slovan Bratislava28 Oct · Super Ligawin 19%
- vs FK Košice31 Oct · Super Ligawin 33%
- at Slovan Bratislava7 Nov · Super Ligawin 9%
- vs Podbrezová21 Nov · Super Ligawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.