PEC Zwolle
vs
FC OSS
KNVB Beker prediction
Our model says: PEC Zwolle 1–0 FC OSS
The model makes it 48% PEC Zwolle, 28% draw, 24% FC OSS — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.58, FC OSS 0.97.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- PEC Zwolle are 16th in Eredivisie on 4 points from 8 games; FC OSS are 13th in Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season on 12 points from 10 games.
- PEC Zwolle have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cambuur.
- FC OSS have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Helmond Sport.
- Last 2 meetings: PEC Zwolle 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 January 2023, ended PEC Zwolle 4–1 FC OSS.
Chance to go through
KNVB Beker Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- PEC Zwolle51%
- Level after ninety minutes26%
- FC OSS23%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More KNVB Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PEC Zwolle at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS
PEC Zwolle
- L0-1Cambuur11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Groningen18 September 2026
- L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
FC OSS
- W3-1Helmond Sport9 October 2026
- W4-1MVV3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Emmen26 September 2026
- W3-0Dordrecht18 September 2026
- L1-3away to VVV Venlo11 September 2026
What these results say
- PEC Zwolle did not win any of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PEC Zwolle had three goals or more.
- FC OSS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC OSS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC OSS had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
PEC Zwolle and FC OSS in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 |
| 13 | FC OSS | Eerste Divisie | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eredivisie · Eerste Divisie
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS
- 27 January 2023PEC Zwolle 4–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 4 November 2022FC OSS 0–5 PEC ZwolleEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and FC OSS
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
FC OSS
GoalsAssists
- M. Hinoke50
- F. Nsingi42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
PEC Zwolle carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.29 for FC OSS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.97 for FC OSS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PEC Zwolle rate 0.59 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC OSS rate 0.54 and 1.65.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PEC Zwolle the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for PEC Zwolle against 0.97 for FC OSS. PEC Zwolle's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.65 for FC OSS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
PEC Zwolle at home · FC OSS away
League matches only, this season — PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie, FC OSS in the Eerste Divisie. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: PEC Zwolle 8 in the Eredivisie, FC OSS 10 in the Eerste Divisie.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
PEC Zwolle
- vs ADO Den Haag1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
- at Willem II6 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
- at Telstar21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 22%
- vs AZ Alkmaar29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 17%
FC OSS
- at Heracles2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
- vs Waalwijk6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- at De Graafschap14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- vs Roda20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.