Round of 32 · 27 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa Cup prediction

Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin

Our model says: Motor Lublin 2–1 Raków Częstochowa

The model makes it 44% Motor Lublin, 25% draw, 31% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.82, Raków Częstochowa 1.44.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Key facts

  • Motor Lublin are 14th on 9 points from 10 games; Raków Częstochowa are bottom on 3 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
  • Motor Lublin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Radomiak Radom.
  • Raków Częstochowa are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to GKS Katowice.
  • Last 6 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 September 2026, ended Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Motor Lublin.

Chance to go through

Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.

  • Motor Lublin46%
  • Level after ninety minutes24%
  • Raków Częstochowa30%

The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.

More Polish Cup predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa

64%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Motor Lublin win Draw Raków Częstochowa win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–06%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Motor Lublin first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 48%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Motor Lublin at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa

Motor Lublin

  • W3-2away to Radomiak Radom12 October 2026
  • D0-0Gornik Zabrze19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Raków Częstochowa11 September 2026
  • L2-3Legia Warszawa5 September 2026
  • L0-2Piast Gliwice29 August 2026

Raków Częstochowa

  • L1-4GKS Katowice9 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Korona Kielce19 September 2026
  • L2-3Zaglebie Lubin15 September 2026
  • W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Motor Lublin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Motor Lublin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Motor Lublin102351217-59
18Raków Częstochowa101091325-123

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa

  • 11 September 2026Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 12 April 2026Motor Lublin 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 5 October 2025Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 7 December 2024Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 21 July 2024Motor Lublin 0–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 1 March 2023Motor Lublin 0–3 Raków CzęstochowaCup

Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa

Motor Lublin

GoalsAssists

  • K. Czubak60

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch60
  • M. Emreli31

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Motor Lublin carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.59 for Raków Częstochowa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.44 for Raków Częstochowa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Motor Lublin rate 0.75 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raków Częstochowa rate 0.87 and 1.49.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Motor Lublin the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Motor Lublin against 1.44 for Raków Częstochowa. Motor Lublin's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.49 for Raków Częstochowa.

Season stats

Motor LublinRaków Częstochowa
10Matches10
2W 3D 5LRecord1W 0D 9L
12 1.2 per gameGoals scored13 1.3 per game
17 1.7 per gameGoals conceded25 2.5 per game
2 of 10Clean sheets0 of 10
2 of 10Failed to score1 of 10
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
19 1.9 per gameYellow cards20 2.0 per game
0Red cards2
4-1-4-1 7×Usual shape3-4-3 5×

Motor Lublin at home · Raków Częstochowa away

5Played4
1W 1D 3LRecord0W 0D 4L
4–7Goals for – against4–8
2 of 5Clean sheets0 of 4

League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Motor Lublin 10, Raków Częstochowa 10.

Motor Lublin scored 011233
Raków Częstochowa conceded 117447
Raków Częstochowa scored 014314
Motor Lublin conceded 154008

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Motor Lublin

  • at Cracovia Krakow31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 30%
  • vs Wisla Plock7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 47%
  • at Wieczysta Kraków21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 28%
  • at Wisla Krakow28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 23%

Raków Częstochowa

  • vs Pogon Szczecin31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 34%
  • at Legia Warszawa7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 18%
  • vs Widzew Łódź21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 42%
  • vs Piast Gliwice28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 41%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.