Regular Season - 13 · 24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda Super Liga postponed match

PostponedNot played

This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.

Before the match was called off the model made it 15% OFK Beograd, 21% draw, 64% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 6.67, 4.76 and 1.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).

Expected goals: OFK Beograd 0.87, FK Crvena Zvezda 2.30.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: High.

One-sided: FK Crvena Zvezda are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

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Model insights: OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

53%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

OFK Beograd win Draw FK Crvena Zvezda win
  1. 0–211%
  2. 1–210%
  3. 0–19%
  4. 1–19%
  5. 0–39%
  6. 1–37%
  7. 0–45%

Scores read OFK Beograd first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 40%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 64% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

OFK Beograd

  • D0-0away to Mladost Lucani12 October 2026
  • L3-5Radnicki 192319 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Radnicki NIS13 September 2026
  • D1-1IMT Novi Beograd7 September 2026
  • L1-3away to FK Partizan31 August 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda

  • W3-0away to Radnicki 192310 October 2026
  • W3-0Radnicki NIS20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Železničar Pančevo17 September 2026
  • W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd13 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026

What these results say

  • OFK Beograd did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • OFK Beograd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FK Crvena Zvezda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FK Crvena Zvezda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11OFK Beograd112451321-810
1FK Crvena Zvezda111010273+2431

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

  • 22 May 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 1–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 30 November 2025OFK Beograd 3–4 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 26 July 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 7–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 27 April 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 5–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 6 April 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 3–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 26 March 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 5–3 OFK BeogradCup

Leading scorers: OFK Beograd and FK Crvena Zvezda

OFK Beograd

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Silue60

FK Crvena Zvezda

GoalsAssists

  • V. Kostov42

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

A clear gap in the ratings

OFK Beograd carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.81 for FK Crvena Zvezda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 0.87 goals for OFK Beograd and 2.30 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

OFK Beograd rate 0.55 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Crvena Zvezda rate 0.91 and 0.99.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives OFK Beograd a 0% chance of the title and FK Crvena Zvezda 93.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.87 expected goals for OFK Beograd against 2.30 for FK Crvena Zvezda. OFK Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/0.99 for FK Crvena Zvezda.