Hradec Králové
vs
FK Jablonec
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Hradec Králové 1–0 FK Jablonec
The model makes it 40% Hradec Králové, 30% draw, 30% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hradec Králové 1.31, FK Jablonec 1.07.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hradec Králové are 9th on 14 points from 10 games; FK Jablonec are 6th on 17 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Hradec Králové have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Artis.
- FK Jablonec have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Zbrojovka Brno.
- Last 6 meetings: FK Jablonec 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended FK Jablonec 1–1 Hradec Králové.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hradec Králové at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec
Hradec Králové
- L2-4Artis10 October 2026
- L0-2Teplice20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zlin13 September 2026
- D0-0Plzen9 September 2026
- W2-1Sparta Praha6 September 2026
FK Jablonec
- W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno10 October 2026
- D1-1Zlin20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
What these results say
- Hradec Králové conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hradec Králové | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 14 |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hradec Králové
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
FK Jablonec
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec
- 10 May 2026FK Jablonec 1–1 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 29 November 2025Hradec Králové 2–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 2 August 2025FK Jablonec 2–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 12 March 2025Hradec Králové 1–2 FK JablonecCup
- 1 March 2025Hradec Králové 1–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 28 September 2024FK Jablonec 2–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hradec Králové carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.62 for FK Jablonec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Hradec Králové and 1.07 for FK Jablonec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hradec Králové rate 0.73 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Jablonec rate 0.74 and 1.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FK Jablonec, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hradec Králové the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hradec Králové against 1.07 for FK Jablonec. Hradec Králové's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.18 for FK Jablonec.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hradec Králové at home · FK Jablonec away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Hradec KrálovéFK Jablonec
Hradec Králové are 9th after 10 Czech Liga matches (between 4th and 10th so far); FK Jablonec are 4th after 10 (between 2nd and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Hradec Králové 10, FK Jablonec 10.
Hradec Králové score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); FK Jablonec have let in 0 there.
FK Jablonec score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Hradec Králové have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hradec Králové
- at Mlada Boleslav1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 29%
- vs Sigma Olomouc7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
- at Slovácko22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 36%
- vs Bohemians 190528 Nov · Czech Ligawin 40%
FK Jablonec
- vs Slavia Praha31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 16%
- at Riga5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.