Al Riyadh
vs
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Riyadh 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC
The model makes it 12% Al Riyadh, 17% draw, 71% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 8.33, 5.88 and 1.41. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Al Riyadh 1.03, Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.00.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Qadisiyah FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Al Riyadh are 11th on 9 points from 8 games; Al-Qadisiyah FC are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Al Riyadh are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Al-Fayha.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-0 win away to Al Kholood.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 April 2026, ended Al Riyadh 0–4 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Qadisiyah FC at 71% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al Riyadh
- D1-1away to Al-Fayha11 October 2026
- W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Khaleej Saihat7 September 2026
- L0-5away to Al-Ahli Jeddah4 September 2026
- W1-0NEOM28 August 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- W5-0away to Al Kholood9 October 2026
- D3-3Al-Ettifaq11 September 2026
- W3-2Al-Ahli Jeddah8 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al Diriyah3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Faisaly FC30 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Riyadh had two goals or fewer.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 9 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
- 29 April 2026Al Riyadh 0–4 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 4 January 2026Al-Qadisiyah FC 4–0 Al RiyadhPro League
- 2 March 2025Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–0 Al RiyadhPro League
- 4 October 2024Al Riyadh 2–1 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 28 February 2023Al Riyadh 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FCDivision 1
- 4 October 2022Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 Al RiyadhDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al Riyadh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- M. Retegui51
- J. Quiñones43
- T. Reijnders40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Al Riyadh carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.95 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Al Riyadh and 3.00 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Riyadh rate 0.61 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Qadisiyah FC rate 1.25 and 1.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Riyadh a 0% chance of the title and Al-Qadisiyah FC 21.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Al Riyadh against 3.00 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Al Riyadh's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.25/1.03 for Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Riyadh at home · Al-Qadisiyah FC away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Riyadh 8, Al-Qadisiyah FC 8.
Al Riyadh score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Al-Qadisiyah FC have let in 1 there.
Al-Qadisiyah FC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Al Riyadh have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Al Riyadh
- at Al-Fateh5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- vs Al-Hazm20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 34%
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- at Al-Gharafa2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 68%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.