Padova
vs
Sudtirol
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Padova 1–0 Sudtirol
The model makes it 34% Padova, 32% draw, 34% Sudtirol — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Padova 1.00, Sudtirol 0.99.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Padova and Sudtirol are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Padova are 10th on 7 points from 6 games; Sudtirol are 4th on 12 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Padova have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Carrarese.
- Sudtirol are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Ascoli.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Sudtirol 3–0 Padova.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Padova vs Sudtirol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Padova at 34% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Padova vs Sudtirol
Padova
- L0-2Carrarese11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Palermo19 September 2026
- W1-0Ascoli12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
- D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
Sudtirol
- D0-0Ascoli10 October 2026
- W4-1away to Arezzo20 September 2026
- D1-1Modena12 September 2026
- W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
What these results say
- Padova failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sudtirol went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sudtirol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sudtirol had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Padova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 4 | Sudtirol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Padova
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
Sudtirol
Chance to finish in the top four · 22% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Padova vs Sudtirol
- 25 January 2026Sudtirol 3–0 PadovaSerie B
- 1 November 2025Padova 1–1 SudtirolSerie B
- 16 April 2022Sudtirol 0–0 PadovaSerie C - Girone A
- 6 April 2022Sudtirol 0–1 PadovaCoppa Italia Serie C
- 9 March 2022Padova 0–0 SudtirolCoppa Italia Serie C
- 12 December 2021Padova 0–0 SudtirolSerie C - Girone A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Padova carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.57 for Sudtirol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Padova and 0.99 for Sudtirol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Padova rate 0.59 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sudtirol rate 0.63 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sudtirol, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Padova a 0.2% chance of the title and Sudtirol 3.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Padova the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Padova against 0.99 for Sudtirol. Padova's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.13 for Sudtirol.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Padova at home · Sudtirol away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Padova 6, Sudtirol 6.
Padova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Sudtirol have let in 0 there.
Sudtirol score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Padova have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Padova
- at Catanzaro31 Oct · Serie Bwin 25%
- vs Empoli7 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
- at Arezzo21 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
Sudtirol
- vs Cesena31 Oct · Serie Bwin 48%
- at Pisa7 Nov · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Cremonese21 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.