Puszcza Niepołomice
vs
Wisla Plock
Cup prediction
Our model says: Puszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Wisla Plock
The model makes it 30% Puszcza Niepołomice, 31% draw, 39% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Puszcza Niepołomice 0.98, Wisla Plock 1.20.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Wisla Plock: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Puszcza Niepołomice are bottom in I Liga on 6 points from 9 games; Wisla Plock are 12th in Ekstraklasa on 11 points from 9 games.
- Puszcza Niepołomice are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Polonia Bytom.
- Wisla Plock have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Wieczysta Kraków.
Chance to go through
Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Puszcza Niepołomice29%
- Level after ninety minutes31%
- Wisla Plock40%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Polish Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Wisla Plock
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wisla Plock at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Puszcza Niepołomice vs Wisla Plock
Puszcza Niepołomice
- L0-1Polonia Bytom11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Warta Poznań18 September 2026
- L1-2ŁKS Łódź11 September 2026
- W2-0Podbeskidzie29 August 2026
- L0-1Unia Skierniewice23 August 2026
Wisla Plock
- L0-3away to Wieczysta Kraków9 October 2026
- W2-0away to Zaglebie Lubin20 September 2026
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Pogon Szczecin7 September 2026
- L0-2Korona Kielce28 August 2026
What these results say
- Puszcza Niepołomice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puszcza Niepołomice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wisla Plock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Wisla Plock in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | I Liga | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: I Liga · Ekstraklasa
The two sides
Puszcza Niepołomice carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.48 for Wisla Plock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.20 for Wisla Plock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Puszcza Niepołomice rate 0.47 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Plock rate 0.60 and 1.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wisla Plock the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.20 for Wisla Plock. Puszcza Niepołomice's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.28 for Wisla Plock.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Puszcza Niepołomice at home · Wisla Plock away
League matches only, this season — Puszcza Niepołomice in the I Liga, Wisla Plock in the Ekstraklasa. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Puszcza Niepołomice 9 in the I Liga, Wisla Plock 9 in the Ekstraklasa.
Puszcza Niepołomice score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Wisla Plock have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Puszcza Niepołomice
- at Stal Rzeszów2 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
- vs Miedz Legnica6 Nov · I Ligawin 38%
- at Chrobry Głogów21 Nov · I Ligawin 26%
Wisla Plock
- vs Piast Gliwice31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- at Motor Lublin7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 26%
- vs Legia Warszawa21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 24%
- at Gornik Zabrze28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.