Preußen Münster
vs
Fortuna Köln
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Preußen Münster 1–0 Fortuna Köln
The model makes it 50% Preußen Münster, 29% draw, 21% Fortuna Köln — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Preußen Münster 1.42, Fortuna Köln 0.73.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Preußen Münster: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Preußen Münster are 9th on 12 points from 9 games; Fortuna Köln are 15th on 10 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- Preußen Münster are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Fortuna Düsseldorf.
- Fortuna Köln have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Rot-Weiß Essen.
- Last 6 meetings: Fortuna Köln 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 April 2023, ended Preussen Munster 1–3 Fortuna Köln.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Preußen Münster at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln
Preußen Münster
- L1-2Fortuna Düsseldorf14 October 2026
- D3-3Rot-Weiß Essen9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Waldhof Mannheim20 September 2026
- D3-3FC Saarbrücken16 September 2026
- W2-1away to Stuttgart II13 September 2026
Fortuna Köln
- L0-2away to Rot-Weiß Essen13 October 2026
- D0-0FC Saarbrücken10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Havelse25 September 2026
- L0-2SV Wehen16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hoffenheim II13 September 2026
What these results say
- Preußen Münster conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Preußen Münster failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Preußen Münster scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Preußen Münster | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Fortuna Köln | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Preußen Münster
Chance to finish in the top four · 19% today
Fortuna Köln
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln
- 28 April 2023Preussen Munster 1–3 Fortuna KölnRegionalliga - West
- 6 November 2022Fortuna Köln 1–3 Preussen MunsterRegionalliga - West
- 19 April 2022Preussen Munster 1–0 Fortuna KölnRegionalliga - West
- 1 October 2021Fortuna Köln 3–2 Preussen MunsterRegionalliga - West
- 8 May 2021Preussen Munster 3–1 Fortuna KölnRegionalliga - West
- 25 November 2020Fortuna Köln 2–0 Preussen MunsterRegionalliga - West
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Preußen Münster carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.2 for Fortuna Köln. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Preußen Münster and 0.73 for Fortuna Köln. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Preußen Münster rate 0.59 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Köln rate 0.37 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Preußen Münster a 1.8% chance of the title and Fortuna Köln 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Preußen Münster the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Preußen Münster against 0.73 for Fortuna Köln. Preußen Münster's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/1.48 for Fortuna Köln.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Preußen Münster at home · Fortuna Köln away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Preußen Münster 9, Fortuna Köln 9.
Preußen Münster score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Fortuna Köln have let in 2 there.
Fortuna Köln score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Preußen Münster have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Preußen Münster
- at Alemannia Aachen1 Nov · 3. Ligawin 31%
- vs MSV Duisburg7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 39%
- at Hoffenheim II21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
- vs Verl28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 46%
Fortuna Köln
- vs Würzburger Kickers31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 44%
- at Waldhof Mannheim7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 27%
- vs SV Meppen21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 40%
- at FC Viktoria Köln29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.