Olympiakos Piraeus
vs
Kalamata
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Kalamata
The model makes it 55% Olympiakos Piraeus, 27% draw, 18% Kalamata — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.60, Kalamata 0.69.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Olympiakos Piraeus are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Olympiakos Piraeus are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games; Kalamata are 10th on 7 points from 6 games — Super League 1.
- Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Panathinaikos.
- Kalamata have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to PAOK.
- Last 2 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 January 2020, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 4–1 Kalamata.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata
Olympiakos Piraeus
- W1-0Panathinaikos11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Levadiakos20 September 2026
- L0-1OFI12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Volos NFC5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Asteras Tripolis30 August 2026
Kalamata
- W3-1away to PAOK12 October 2026
- L0-1Panathinaikos20 September 2026
- W3-1Volos NFC13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atromitos6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Panetolikos29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Olympiakos Piraeus had two goals or fewer.
- Olympiakos Piraeus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kalamata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Kalamata | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Olympiakos Piraeus
Chance to finish in the top four · 85% today
Kalamata
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata
- 15 January 2020Olympiakos Piraeus 4–1 KalamataCup
- 8 January 2020Kalamata 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusCup
Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata
Olympiakos Piraeus
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Kalamata
GoalsAssists
- K. Vargas30
- E. Hamza20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Olympiakos Piraeus carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.63 for Kalamata. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.69 for Kalamata. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olympiakos Piraeus rate 0.85 in attack and 0.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kalamata rate 0.84 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 9.6% chance of the title and Kalamata 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus against 0.69 for Kalamata. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack/defence rating is 0.85/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.3 for Kalamata.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Olympiakos Piraeus at home · Kalamata away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Olympiakos PiraeusKalamata
Olympiakos Piraeus are 3rd after 6 Super League 1 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Kalamata are 10th after 6 (between 9th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −2) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Olympiakos Piraeus 6, Kalamata 6.
Olympiakos Piraeus score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Kalamata have let in 3 there.
Kalamata score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Olympiakos Piraeus have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Olympiakos Piraeus
- at Kifisia31 Oct · Super League 1win 49%
- at Rennes5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 33%
Kalamata
- vs Iraklis 19082 Nov · Super League 1win 41%
- at Asteras Tripolis8 Nov · Super League 1win 39%
- vs AEK Athens FC21 Nov · Super League 1win 18%
- at Kifisia28 Nov · Super League 1win 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.