25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC

Toulouse vs Estac Troyes Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stadium Municipal, Toulouse
Referee: Geoffrey Kubler
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Toulouse 0-0 Estac Troyes.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Toulouse, 21% draw, 15% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Toulouse at 64% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Toulouse7%Draw91%Estac Troyes2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Rafik Messali
25'
Aron Dønnum
25'
36'
Junior Diaz
Cristian Casseres
39'
40'
Timothee Nkada
🔁Rafik Messaliout: Alexis Vossah
58'
🔁Aron Dønnumout: Ilyas Azizi
67'
73'
🔁Renaud Ripartout: Jérémy Le Douaron
73'
🔁Timothee Nkadaout: Kandet Diawara
Niko Sigur
83'
🔁Jacen Russell-Roweout: Santiago Hidalgo
84'
🔁Thomas Jorgensenout: Niklas Schmidt
84'
Jens Berthel Askou
88'
Alexis Vossah
89'
90'
🔁Mouhamed Diopout: Iron Gomis
Mark McKenzie
90+3'

Match stats — Toulouse vs Estac Troyes

63%Possession37%
7Shots8
3On target0
4Corners2
0.7xG0.38

Goals against chances

Toulouse0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Estac Troyes0 from 0.38 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Toulouse 4-4-2
  • 16G. RestesG
  • 22R. MessaliD
  • 3M. McKenzieD
  • 2R. NicolaisenD
  • 12C. TapéD
  • 15A. DønnumM
  • 23C. CásseresM
  • 14N. SigurM
  • 8T. JørgensenM
  • 13J. Russell-RoweF
  • 20C. TengstedtF
Substitutes
  • 6A. VossahM
  • 1T. CollinG
  • 37Y. AziziF
  • 18M. AmougouM
  • 94I. DialloD
  • 9S. HidalgoF
  • 5S. KoumbassaD
  • 31N. SchmidtM
  • 7Julián VignoloF
Coach: Jens Berthel Askou
Estac Troyes 4-3-3
  • 40H. KonatéG
  • 2L. MaronnierD
  • 6A. MonfrayD
  • 4M. DiazD
  • 5P. GozziD
  • 17A. MilleM
  • 29D. KarimM
  • 8M. DiopM
  • 10M. IfnaouiF
  • 20R. RipartF
  • 23T. NkadaF
Substitutes
  • 33P. BeachG
  • 7K. DiawaraF
  • 11I. GomisM
  • 22H. PicardM
  • 26A. PhliponeauM
  • 9J. Le DouaronF
  • 36I. SoukounaM
  • 31Noah DonkorD
  • 34Lassana SimakhaD
Coach: S. Dumont

Form going into Toulouse vs Estac Troyes

Toulouse

Ligue 1

  • W3-0away to Le Mans16 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Monaco10 October 2026
  • W3-2Le Havre19 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Lorient12 September 2026

Estac Troyes

Ligue 1

  • L1-3Lens17 October 2026
  • L0-2Marseille11 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Angers19 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Lille13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Toulouse went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Toulouse scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Toulouse had three goals or more.
  • Estac Troyes did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Estac Troyes conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Estac Troyes failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Toulouse82421211+110
17Estac Troyes8125516-115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes

  • 1 February 2023Toulouse 4–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • 14 August 2022Estac Troyes 0–3 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 9 July 2022Toulouse 6–1 Estac TroyesFriendlies Clubs
  • 6 February 2021Estac Troyes 1–1 ToulouseLigue 2
  • 3 October 2020Toulouse 0–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2
  • 27 January 2018Toulouse 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1

The full Toulouse vs Estac Troyes record →

Leading scorers: Toulouse and Estac Troyes

Toulouse

GoalsAssists

  • C. Tengstedt51

Estac Troyes

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Toulouse and Estac Troyes drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Toulouse at 64% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.70–0.38.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Estac Troyes a 75.0% chance to finish in the bottom two: 66.1% after a win, 74.9% after a draw, 76.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 74.9%.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Toulouse v Estac Troyes has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 56% / 23% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 64% / 21% / 15%: the biggest move is Toulouse's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Toulouse win64%▲ +8
  2. Draw21%▼ −2
  3. Estac Troyes win15%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.