SV Elversberg
vs
SV Darmstadt 98
DFB Pokal prediction
Our model says: SV Elversberg 2–0 SV Darmstadt 98
The model makes it 67% SV Elversberg, 20% draw, 13% SV Darmstadt 98 — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: SV Elversberg 2.38, SV Darmstadt 98 0.76.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: SV Elversberg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SV Elversberg are 9th in Bundesliga on 7 points from 5 games; SV Darmstadt 98 are 14th in 2. Bundesliga on 7 points from 7 games.
- SV Elversberg are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Union Berlin.
- SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Energie Cottbus.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended SV Darmstadt 98 3–3 SV Elversberg.
Chance to go through
DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- SV Elversberg73%
- Level after ninety minutes17%
- SV Darmstadt 9810%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DFB Pokal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SV Elversberg vs SV Darmstadt 98
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SV Elversberg at 67% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SV Elversberg vs SV Darmstadt 98
SV Elversberg
- L0-1away to Union Berlin10 October 2026
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 0420 September 2026
- L1-2Bayern München13 September 2026
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach5 September 2026
- W3-2Bayer Leverkusen29 August 2026
SV Darmstadt 98
- W3-1Energie Cottbus10 October 2026
- L1-5away to VfL Wolfsburg18 September 2026
- W2-1Arminia Bielefeld11 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern5 September 2026
- L0-1Hannover 9630 August 2026
What these results say
- SV Elversberg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SV Darmstadt 98 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SV Darmstadt 98 had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
SV Elversberg and SV Darmstadt 98 in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SV Elversberg | Bundesliga | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 2. Bundesliga | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Bundesliga · 2. Bundesliga
Head-to-head: SV Elversberg vs SV Darmstadt 98
- 25 April 2026SV Darmstadt 98 3–3 SV Elversberg2. Bundesliga
- 30 November 2025SV Elversberg 0–0 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 8 February 2025SV Darmstadt 98 0–3 SV Elversberg2. Bundesliga
- 31 August 2024SV Elversberg 4–0 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 13 October 2023SV Darmstadt 98 4–2 SV ElversbergFriendlies Clubs
- 20 December 2013SV Elversberg 0–3 SV Darmstadt 983. Liga
Leading scorers: SV Elversberg and SV Darmstadt 98
SV Elversberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Krattenmacher30
SV Darmstadt 98
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SV Elversberg carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.42 for SV Darmstadt 98. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.38 goals for SV Elversberg and 0.76 for SV Darmstadt 98. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SV Elversberg rate 0.95 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Darmstadt 98 rate 0.65 and 1.54.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Elversberg the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for SV Elversberg against 0.76 for SV Darmstadt 98. SV Elversberg's attack/defence rating is 0.95/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.54 for SV Darmstadt 98.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SV Elversberg at home · SV Darmstadt 98 away
League matches only, this season — SV Elversberg in the Bundesliga, SV Darmstadt 98 in the 2. Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: SV Elversberg 5 in the Bundesliga, SV Darmstadt 98 7 in the 2. Bundesliga.
SV Darmstadt 98 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); SV Elversberg have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SV Elversberg
- vs FSV Mainz 0530 Oct · Bundesligawin 43%
- at Borussia Dortmund7 Nov · Bundesligawin 16%
- vs SC Freiburg21 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- at 1. FC Köln28 Nov · Bundesligawin 41%
SV Darmstadt 98
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- at 1. FC Nürnberg7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 21%
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim20 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 28%
- at VfL Bochum27 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.