Maccabi Haifa
vs
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Maccabi Haifa 2–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva
The model makes it 38% Maccabi Haifa, 25% draw, 37% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Maccabi Haifa 1.73, Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.70.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Maccabi Haifa and Hapoel Beer Sheva are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Maccabi Haifa are 2nd on 15 points from 6 games; Hapoel Beer Sheva are 4th on 13 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Maccabi Haifa are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Hapoel Jerusalem.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Ironi Tiberias.
- Last 6 meetings: Hapoel Beer Sheva 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–5 Maccabi Haifa.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Haifa at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Maccabi Haifa
- W4-1away to Hapoel Jerusalem12 October 2026
- W3-2Ironi Tiberias19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona14 September 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Maccabi Tel Aviv31 August 2026
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- W2-0away to Ironi Tiberias10 October 2026
- W1-0Ironi Kiryat Shmona19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva13 September 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Tel Aviv7 September 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Haifa2 September 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Haifa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Maccabi Haifa had three goals or more.
- Maccabi Haifa won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Maccabi Haifa
Chance to finish in the top four · 83% today
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Chance to finish in the top four · 71% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
- 23 May 2026Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–5 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 6 May 2026Maccabi Haifa 0–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
- 10 January 2026Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–0 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 29 September 2025Maccabi Haifa 0–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
- 12 May 2025Hapoel Beer Sheva 4–1 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 7 April 2025Maccabi Haifa 0–3 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Haifa and Hapoel Beer Sheva
Maccabi Haifa
GoalsAssists
- A. Novaković41
- Bruninho34
- Pedro Brazão22
Hapoel Beer Sheva
GoalsAssists
- A. Ganah20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Maccabi Haifa carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.66 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Maccabi Haifa and 1.70 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Haifa rate 0.90 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Beer Sheva rate 0.82 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maccabi Haifa a 16% chance of the title and Hapoel Beer Sheva 9.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Haifa the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Maccabi Haifa against 1.70 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Maccabi Haifa's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.21 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Maccabi Haifa at home · Hapoel Beer Sheva away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Maccabi Haifa 6, Hapoel Beer Sheva 6.
Hapoel Beer Sheva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Maccabi Haifa have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Maccabi Haifa
- at Hapoel Tel Aviv31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 33%
- vs Maccabi Netanya7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 57%
- at Bnei Sakhnin28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 59%
- vs Beitar Jerusalem1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 42%
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- at Maccabi Petah Tikva31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 62%
- vs OFI5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.