AC Milan
vs
Bologna
Serie A prediction
Our model says: AC Milan 1–0 Bologna
The model makes it 50% AC Milan, 28% draw, 22% Bologna — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: AC Milan 1.56, Bologna 0.83.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to AC Milan: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- AC Milan are 5th on 12 points from 6 games; Bologna are 14th on 5 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sassuolo.
- Bologna have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Lecce.
- Last 6 meetings: AC Milan 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 February 2026, ended Bologna 0–3 AC Milan.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AC Milan vs Bologna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AC Milan at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AC Milan vs Bologna
AC Milan
- D1-1away to Sassuolo11 October 2026
- W3-0Lecce20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
- W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
Bologna
- W2-1away to Lecce11 October 2026
- D1-1Torino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Napoli13 September 2026
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
What these results say
- AC Milan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AC Milan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bologna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bologna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 12 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Bologna
AC Milan and Bologna have met 6 times in the records we hold, AC Milan has won 3 of them to Bologna's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
AC Milan won the last one 3–0 on 3 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 |
| Bologna | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 3 Feb 2026
Serie ABologna 0–3 AC Milan - 14 Sep 2025
Serie AAC Milan 1–0 Bologna - 14 May 2025
Coppa ItaliaAC Milan 0–1 Bologna - 9 May 2025
Serie AAC Milan 3–1 Bologna - 27 Feb 2025
Serie ABologna 2–1 AC Milan - 27 Jan 2024
Serie AAC Milan 2–2 Bologna
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: AC Milan and Bologna
AC Milan
GoalsAssists
- A. Rabiot32
- Diego Moreira30
Bologna
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AC Milan carry a model rating of 7.11 against 6.85 for Bologna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for AC Milan and 0.83 for Bologna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Milan rate 1.23 in attack and 0.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bologna rate 0.91 and 0.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AC Milan a 3.4% chance of the title and Bologna 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Milan the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for AC Milan against 0.83 for Bologna. AC Milan's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/0.91 for Bologna.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AC Milan at home · Bologna away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AC MilanBologna
AC Milan are 4th after 6 Serie A matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Bologna are 13th after 6 (between 13th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: AC Milan 6, Bologna 6.
AC Milan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Bologna have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
AC Milan
- vs Inter31 Oct · Serie Awin 31%
Bologna
- vs Monza31 Oct · Serie Awin 47%
- at Parma7 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
- vs Udinese22 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.