Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
Slavia Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–0 Slavia Sofia
The model makes it 32% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 36% draw, 32% Slavia Sofia — fair odds of 3.13, 2.78 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (20%).
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.81, Slavia Sofia 0.83.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 23%, under 2.5: 77%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th on 8 points from 11 games; Slavia Sofia are 8th on 11 points from 11 games — First League.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Lokomotiv Sofia.
- Slavia Sofia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Botev Plovdiv.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Slavia Sofia 0–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia10 October 2026
- D1-1CSKA Sofia20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Botev Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W1-0Cherno More Varna6 September 2026
- L0-2away to CSKA 194828 August 2026
Slavia Sofia
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv10 October 2026
- L1-2CSKA 194818 September 2026
- D0-0Spartak Varna13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Dunav Ruse7 September 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia2 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lokomotiv Plovdiv had two goals or fewer.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 45% today
Slavia Sofia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
- 8 February 2026Slavia Sofia 0–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 15 August 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 19 May 2025Slavia Sofia 1–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 19 April 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 9 November 2024Slavia Sofia 2–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 3 July 2024Slavia Sofia 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lokomotiv Plovdiv carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.3 for Slavia Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.81 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 0.83 for Slavia Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv rate 0.40 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Sofia rate 0.47 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv against 0.83 for Slavia Sofia. Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.4/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.47 for Slavia Sofia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home · Slavia Sofia away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 11, Slavia Sofia 11.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Slavia Sofia have let in 0 there.
Slavia Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Lokomotiv Plovdiv have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- at Botev Vratsa31 Oct · First Leaguewin 29%
- vs Ludogorets7 Nov · First Leaguewin 16%
- at Septemvri Sofia21 Nov · First Leaguewin 35%
- vs Spartak Varna28 Nov · First Leaguewin 38%
- vs Levski Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 14%
Slavia Sofia
- vs Cherno More Varna31 Oct · First Leaguewin 43%
- at CSKA Sofia7 Nov · First Leaguewin 17%
- vs Arda Kardzhali21 Nov · First Leaguewin 37%
- at Lokomotiv Sofia28 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
- vs Botev Vratsa5 Dec · First Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.