Universidad Catolica
vs
Audax Italiano
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universidad Catolica 2–1 Audax Italiano
The model makes it 55% Universidad Catolica, 24% draw, 21% Audax Italiano — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 2.02, Audax Italiano 1.06.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,616 settled matches.
Edge to Universidad Catolica: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Universidad Catolica are 3rd on 42 points from 24 games; Audax Italiano are 12th on 29 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Universidad Catolica have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Union La Calera.
- Audax Italiano are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Huachipato.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Audax Italiano 3–4 Universidad Catolica.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universidad Catolica at 55% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 1,223 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano
Universidad Catolica
Primera División
- L1-3away to Union La Calera25 October 2026
- W3-2away to Palestino12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Everton de Vina5 September 2026
- W3-2O'Higgins1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Coquimbo Unido26 August 2026
Audax Italiano
Primera División
- D1-1Huachipato23 October 2026
- W1-0O'Higgins13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Concepción5 September 2026
- L1-5away to Colo Colo30 August 2026
- D0-0Union La Calera22 August 2026
What these results say
- Universidad Catolica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Audax Italiano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Audax Italiano had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 42 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Universidad Catolica
Chance to finish in the top four
Audax Italiano
Chance to finish in the bottom three
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano
- 11 April 2026Audax Italiano 3–4 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 20 July 2025Audax Italiano 1–1 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 17 February 2025Universidad Catolica 3–1 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 18 August 2024Audax Italiano 2–1 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 17 March 2024Universidad Catolica 0–0 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 5 August 2023Universidad Catolica 0–2 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica and Audax Italiano
Universidad Catolica
GoalsAssists
- F. Zampedri232
- J. Giani74
Audax Italiano
GoalsAssists
- G. Chiaverano63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Universidad Catolica carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.36 for Audax Italiano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Universidad Catolica and 1.06 for Audax Italiano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universidad Catolica rate 0.82 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Audax Italiano rate 0.55 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universidad Catolica a 0.4% chance of the title and Audax Italiano 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on Universidad Catolica v Audax Italiano has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is Universidad Catolica's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Universidad Catolica win55%▲ +4
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Audax Italiano win21%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad Catolica the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Universidad Catolica against 1.06 for Audax Italiano. Universidad Catolica's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.47 for Audax Italiano.
How the model reaches 55% for Universidad Catolica to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Universidad Catolica to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Universidad Catolica's ratings take away 16 points and Audax Italiano's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Universidad Catolica's ratings28%−16
- Audax Italiano's ratings55%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universidad Catolica at home · Audax Italiano away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universidad Catolica 24, Audax Italiano 24.
Universidad Catolica score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Audax Italiano have let in 4 there.
Audax Italiano score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Universidad Catolica have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Universidad Catolica
- vs Universidad de Chile1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 35%
- vs Deportes Limache8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 51%
- at Colo Colo22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Huachipato29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 57%
- at Universidad de Concepcion6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 49%
Audax Italiano
- at Deportes Limache2 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 24%
- vs Coquimbo Unido8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
- at Cobresal22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 30%
- vs Palestino29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
- at Deportes La Serena6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.