Holstein Kiel
vs
1899 Hoffenheim
DFB Pokal prediction
Our model says: Holstein Kiel 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim
The model makes it 26% Holstein Kiel, 26% draw, 48% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Holstein Kiel 1.13, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.72.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: 1899 Hoffenheim are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Holstein Kiel have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Eintracht Braunschweig.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Hamburger SV.
- Last 4 meetings: 1899 Hoffenheim 4 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 July 2026, ended 1899 Hoffenheim 3–1 Holstein Kiel.
Chance to go through
DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Holstein Kiel24%
- Level after ninety minutes25%
- 1899 Hoffenheim51%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DFB Pokal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Holstein Kiel vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Holstein Kiel vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Holstein Kiel
- L0-1away to Eintracht Braunschweig9 October 2026
- D1-1VfL Osnabrück19 September 2026
- L0-1away to 1. FC Heidenheim13 September 2026
- D2-21. FC Nürnberg5 September 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Magdeburg30 August 2026
1899 Hoffenheim
- L2-3Hamburger SV10 October 2026
- L1-3away to SC Paderborn 0720 September 2026
- L0-2away to OFI17 September 2026
- W2-1VfB Stuttgart12 September 2026
- L2-3Borussia Dortmund5 September 2026
What these results say
- Holstein Kiel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Holstein Kiel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Holstein Kiel had two goals or fewer.
- 1899 Hoffenheim conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs 1899 Hoffenheim
- 29 July 20261899 Hoffenheim 3–1 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
- 18 January 2025Holstein Kiel 1–3 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 24 August 20241899 Hoffenheim 3–2 Holstein KielBundesliga
- 26 October 20211899 Hoffenheim 5–1 Holstein KielDFB Pokal
Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and 1899 Hoffenheim
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres42
1899 Hoffenheim
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Holstein Kiel carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.79 for 1899 Hoffenheim. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.72 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Holstein Kiel rate 0.58 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.05 and 1.20.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Holstein Kiel against 1.72 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Holstein Kiel's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.2 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Holstein Kiel at home · 1899 Hoffenheim away
League matches only, this season — Holstein Kiel in the 2. Bundesliga, 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Holstein Kiel 7 in the 2. Bundesliga, 1899 Hoffenheim 5 in the Bundesliga.
Holstein Kiel score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); 1899 Hoffenheim have let in 3 there.
1899 Hoffenheim score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Holstein Kiel have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Holstein Kiel
- at SpVgg Greuther Fürth1 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 31%
- vs Arminia Bielefeld7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- at VfL Wolfsburg21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 20%
- vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 33%
1899 Hoffenheim
- at Werder Bremen31 Oct · Bundesligawin 34%
- at Crystal Palace5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.