AEL
vs
Aris
1. Division prediction
Our model says: AEL 2–1 Aris
The model makes it 38% AEL, 28% draw, 34% Aris — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AEL 1.44, Aris 1.34.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AEL are 2nd on 12 points from 5 games; Aris are 6th on 8 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- AEL are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Omonia 29is Maiou.
- Aris are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Olympiakos.
- Last 6 meetings: Aris 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended AEL 2–1 Aris.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AEL vs Aris
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEL at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AEL vs Aris
AEL
- W2-1Omonia 29is Maiou11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Pafos18 September 2026
- W2-1Nea Salamis11 September 2026
- L0-6away to Apoel Nicosia6 September 2026
- W2-0Anorthosis30 August 2026
Aris
- W2-1away to Olympiakos11 October 2026
- D0-0Karmiotissa20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Krasava Ypsonas14 September 2026
- L1-4Omonia Nicosia7 September 2026
- D2-2Apollon Limassol29 August 2026
What these results say
- AEL won 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEL scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aris scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AEL vs Aris
- 1 February 2026AEL 2–1 Aris1. Division
- 21 January 2026Aris 0–1 AELCup
- 19 October 2025Aris 4–0 AEL1. Division
- 23 February 2025Aris 4–0 AEL1. Division
- 24 November 2024AEL 0–3 Aris1. Division
- 18 February 2024Aris 4–0 AEL1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AEL carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.58 for Aris. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for AEL and 1.34 for Aris. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEL rate 0.67 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aris rate 0.77 and 1.32.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEL the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for AEL against 1.34 for Aris. AEL's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.32 for Aris.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AEL at home · Aris away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: AEL 5, Aris 5.
AEL score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Aris have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AEL
- at Omonia Nicosia31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 8%
- vs Krasava Ypsonas7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 53%
- at Karmiotissa22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 35%
- vs Olympiakos27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 40%
Aris
- vs Anorthosis1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 55%
- at Apoel Nicosia8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 27%
- vs Nea Salamis21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 53%
- at Pafos29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.