FAR Rabat
vs
Ittihad Tanger
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: FAR Rabat 1–0 Ittihad Tanger
The model makes it 43% FAR Rabat, 29% draw, 28% Ittihad Tanger — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FAR Rabat 1.38, Ittihad Tanger 1.02.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,012 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. FAR Rabat's rating is built from 32 Botola Pro matches and Ittihad Tanger's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- FAR Rabat are 10th on 4 points from 2 games; Ittihad Tanger are 4th on 7 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- Ittihad Tanger have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Maghreb Fès.
- Last 6 meetings: FAR Rabat 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Ittihad Tanger 0–0 FAR Rabat.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FAR Rabat vs Ittihad Tanger
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FAR Rabat at 43% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FAR Rabat vs Ittihad Tanger
FAR Rabat
- D2-2away to Hassania Agadir12 October 2026
- W1-0Widad Témara8 October 2026
Ittihad Tanger
- W2-1Maghreb Fès14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Kawkab Marrakech10 October 2026
- D1-1Moghreb Tetouan2 October 2026
- W3-1away to Amal Tiznit24 September 2026
What these results say
- Ittihad Tanger scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Ittihad Tanger conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Ittihad Tanger.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FAR Rabat | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Ittihad Tanger | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FAR Rabat vs Ittihad Tanger
- 3 May 2026Ittihad Tanger 0–0 FAR RabatBotola Pro
- 1 October 2025FAR Rabat 1–1 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 8 February 2025FAR Rabat 3–2 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 6 October 2024Ittihad Tanger 1–1 FAR RabatBotola Pro
- 2 March 2024Ittihad Tanger 1–2 FAR RabatBotola Pro
- 29 October 2023FAR Rabat 1–0 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FAR Rabat carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.36 for Ittihad Tanger. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for FAR Rabat and 1.02 for Ittihad Tanger. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FAR Rabat rate 0.69 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ittihad Tanger rate 0.60 and 1.61.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ittihad Tanger, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,088 correct results out of 4,337 settled predictions (48%), with 440 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FAR Rabat the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FAR Rabat against 1.02 for Ittihad Tanger. FAR Rabat's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.61 for Ittihad Tanger.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FAR Rabat
- at CODM Meknès1 Nov · Botola Prowin 40%
- vs Raja Casablanca4 Nov · Botola Prowin 35%
- vs Difaa EL Jadida8 Nov · Botola Prowin 50%
Ittihad Tanger
- vs CR Khemis Zemamra1 Nov · Botola Prowin 46%
- at Raja Casablanca8 Nov · Botola Prowin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.