Arka Gdynia
vs
Stal Rzeszów
Cup prediction
Our model says: Arka Gdynia 2–0 Stal Rzeszów
The model makes it 62% Arka Gdynia, 22% draw, 16% Stal Rzeszów — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Arka Gdynia 2.28, Stal Rzeszów 0.92.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Arka Gdynia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Arka Gdynia are 16th on 11 points from 10 games; Stal Rzeszów are 9th on 14 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Arka Gdynia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Polonia Warszawa.
- Stal Rzeszów have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Lechia Gdansk.
- Last 6 meetings: Arka Gdynia 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Arka Gdynia 4–0 Stal Rzeszów.
Chance to go through
Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Arka Gdynia68%
- Level after ninety minutes19%
- Stal Rzeszów13%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Polish Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arka Gdynia at 62% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów
Arka Gdynia
- L1-2Polonia Warszawa10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Pogoń Siedlce20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Warta Poznań12 September 2026
- D1-1ŁKS Łódź6 September 2026
- D1-1Polonia Bytom30 August 2026
Stal Rzeszów
- L1-2Lechia Gdansk12 October 2026
- W3-2away to Miedz Legnica19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Odra Opole13 September 2026
- W2-1Polonia Warszawa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Unia Skierniewice28 August 2026
What these results say
- Arka Gdynia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Stal Rzeszów | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów
- 1 August 2026Arka Gdynia 4–0 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 2 December 2024Arka Gdynia 2–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 22 July 2024Stal Rzeszów 1–0 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 25 February 2024Arka Gdynia 5–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 13 August 2023Stal Rzeszów 2–3 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 7 May 2023Stal Rzeszów 2–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
The two sides
Arka Gdynia carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.14 for Stal Rzeszów. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.28 goals for Arka Gdynia and 0.92 for Stal Rzeszów. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arka Gdynia rate 0.66 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stal Rzeszów rate 0.51 and 2.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arka Gdynia the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Arka Gdynia against 0.92 for Stal Rzeszów. Arka Gdynia's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.12 for Stal Rzeszów.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arka Gdynia at home · Stal Rzeszów away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Arka Gdynia 10, Stal Rzeszów 10.
Arka Gdynia score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Stal Rzeszów have let in 2 there.
Stal Rzeszów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Arka Gdynia have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Arka Gdynia
- at Chrobry Głogów3 Nov · I Ligawin 37%
- vs Podbeskidzie7 Nov · I Ligawin 55%
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki21 Nov · I Ligawin 33%
- vs Ruch Chorzów28 Nov · I Ligawin 49%
Stal Rzeszów
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice2 Nov · I Ligawin 39%
- at ŁKS Łódź8 Nov · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Polonia Bytom21 Nov · I Ligawin 39%
- at Nieciecza28 Nov · I Ligawin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.