Cadiz
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Cadiz 1–0 AD Ceuta FC
The model makes it 47% Cadiz, 27% draw, 26% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cadiz 1.67, AD Ceuta FC 1.13.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cadiz are 20th on 7 points from 9 games; AD Ceuta FC are 21st on 5 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Cadiz have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sporting Gijon.
- AD Ceuta FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Sabadell.
- Last 4 meetings: AD Ceuta FC 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 July 2026, ended Cadiz 1–3 AD Ceuta FC.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cadiz at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC
Cadiz
- L0-1Sporting Gijon11 October 2026
- W4-0Leganes3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tenerife26 September 2026
- L1-2Girona19 September 2026
- L0-1Las Palmas12 September 2026
AD Ceuta FC
- L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Castellón4 October 2026
- W3-1Real Sociedad II26 September 2026
- D1-1Valladolid20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
What these results say
- Cadiz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cadiz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for AD Ceuta FC.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cadiz | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cadiz
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 36% today
AD Ceuta FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 63% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC
- 29 July 2026Cadiz 1–3 AD Ceuta FCFriendlies Clubs
- 28 March 2026AD Ceuta FC 2–1 CadizSegunda División
- 28 September 2025Cadiz 0–0 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
- 2 August 2025Cadiz 0–3 AD Ceuta FCFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC
Cadiz
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Cordero31
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cadiz carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.32 for AD Ceuta FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Cadiz and 1.13 for AD Ceuta FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cadiz rate 0.60 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AD Ceuta FC rate 0.62 and 1.80.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cadiz the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Cadiz against 1.13 for AD Ceuta FC. Cadiz's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.8 for AD Ceuta FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cadiz at home · AD Ceuta FC away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CadizAD Ceuta FC
Cadiz are 20th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 3rd and 20th so far); AD Ceuta FC are 21st after 9 (between 19th and 22nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Cadiz 9, AD Ceuta FC 9.
Cadiz score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); AD Ceuta FC have let in 3 there.
AD Ceuta FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Cadiz have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cadiz
- at Mallorca1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 15%
- vs Oviedo8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- at Eibar15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 17%
- at Real Sociedad II22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
AD Ceuta FC
- vs Sporting Gijon1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- at Cordoba8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- at Tenerife15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
- vs Almeria22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.