Bahia
vs
Sao Paulo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Bahia 1–0 Sao Paulo
The model makes it 50% Bahia, 28% draw, 22% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Bahia 1.56, Sao Paulo 0.86.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Bahia are 5th on 49 points from 30 games; Sao Paulo are 10th on 39 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Bahia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Mirassol.
- Sao Paulo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Vitoria.
- Last 6 meetings: Sao Paulo 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Sao Paulo 2–2 Bahia.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bahia vs Sao Paulo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 50% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bahia vs Sao Paulo
Bahia
- W1-0Mirassol11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Palmeiras9 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Paranaense20 September 2026
- W2-1Remo14 September 2026
- W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
Sao Paulo
- W2-1Vitoria11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Cruzeiro8 October 2026
- L1-2Santos2 October 2026
- W1-0Internacional20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Palmeiras12 September 2026
What these results say
- Bahia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bahia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sao Paulo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 49 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bahia
Chance to finish in the top four · 22% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Sao Paulo
Bahia and Sao Paulo have met 6 times in the records we hold, Sao Paulo has won 4 of them to Bahia's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Sao Paulo on 3 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| Sao Paulo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 3 May 2026
Serie ASao Paulo 2–2 Bahia - 26 Oct 2025
Serie ASao Paulo 2–0 Bahia - 31 May 2025
Serie ABahia 2–1 Sao Paulo - 6 Nov 2024
Serie ABahia 0–3 Sao Paulo - 30 Jun 2024
Serie ASao Paulo 3–1 Bahia - 29 Nov 2023
Serie ABahia 0–1 Sao Paulo
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Bahia and Sao Paulo
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba101
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri101
- Luciano92
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bahia carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.67 for Sao Paulo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Bahia and 0.86 for Sao Paulo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bahia rate 0.91 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sao Paulo rate 0.74 and 1.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bahia the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Bahia against 0.86 for Sao Paulo. Bahia's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.08 for Sao Paulo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bahia at home · Sao Paulo away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Bahia 30, Sao Paulo 30.
Bahia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Sao Paulo have let in 6 there.
Sao Paulo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Bahia have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bahia
- at Cruzeiro6 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- at Gremio18 Nov · Serie Awin 34%
- vs Coritiba22 Nov · Serie Awin 59%
Sao Paulo
- vs Corinthians5 Nov · Serie Awin 45%
- vs Fluminense18 Nov · Serie Awin 34%
- at Botafogo22 Nov · Serie Awin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.