Philadelphia Union
vs
New England Revolution
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Philadelphia Union 2–1 New England Revolution
The model makes it 54% Philadelphia Union, 23% draw, 23% New England Revolution — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 2.24, New England Revolution 1.29.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Philadelphia Union: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Philadelphia Union are 6th on 42 points from 28 games; New England Revolution are 4th on 46 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Real Salt Lake.
- New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Seattle Sounders.
- Last 6 meetings: Philadelphia Union 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended New England Revolution 2–1 Philadelphia Union.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
Philadelphia Union
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 October 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC26 September 2026
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
- W5-0FC Cincinnati9 September 2026
New England Revolution
- L0-3Seattle Sounders10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake27 September 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chicago Fire13 September 2026
- W2-1away to New York City FC10 September 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union won every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Philadelphia Union had three goals or more.
- New England Revolution conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 45 | +11 | 42 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 39 | +6 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Philadelphia Union
Chance to finish in the top four · 29% today
New England Revolution
Chance to finish in the top four · 39% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
- 9 May 2026New England Revolution 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 20 September 2025Philadelphia Union 1–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025New England Revolution 0–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2024Philadelphia Union 5–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2024New England Revolution 0–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 14 February 2024New England Revolution 0–0 Philadelphia UnionFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski172
New England Revolution
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Philadelphia Union carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.5 for New England Revolution. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.29 for New England Revolution. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Philadelphia Union rate 0.90 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New England Revolution rate 0.68 and 1.36.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Philadelphia Union against 1.29 for New England Revolution. Philadelphia Union's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.36 for New England Revolution.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Philadelphia Union at home · New England Revolution away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Philadelphia Union 27, New England Revolution 27.
Philadelphia Union score most often in the 61–75 minute window (15 goals); New England Revolution have let in 7 there.
New England Revolution score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Philadelphia Union have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Philadelphia Union
- at Nashville SC29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 23%
- at FC Cincinnati31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 45%
- vs Toronto FC7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 58%
New England Revolution
- vs New York Red Bulls28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 48%
- vs Inter Miami2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 32%
- at Orlando City SC7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.