IFK Goteborg
vs
Djurgardens IF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: IFK Goteborg 1–2 Djurgardens IF
The model makes it 21% IFK Goteborg, 24% draw, 55% Djurgardens IF — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: IFK Goteborg 1.06, Djurgardens IF 2.00.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Djurgardens IF are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- IFK Goteborg are 8th on 35 points from 23 games; Djurgardens IF are 2nd on 44 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- IFK Goteborg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Vasteras SK FK.
- Djurgardens IF have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Hammarby FF.
- Last 6 meetings: Djurgardens IF 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 May 2026, ended Djurgardens IF 6–0 IFK Goteborg.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Djurgardens IF at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF
IFK Goteborg
- W1-0Vasteras SK FK9 October 2026
- W1-0away to IF Brommapojkarna19 September 2026
- W2-1Halmstad12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Mjallby AIF7 September 2026
- W1-0Orgryte IS30 August 2026
Djurgardens IF
- W1-0away to Hammarby FF11 October 2026
- L1-2IF Elfsborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Gais14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Kalmar FF7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Mjallby AIF3 September 2026
What these results say
- IFK Goteborg won every one of these 5 matches.
- IFK Goteborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | IFK Goteborg | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 35 |
| 2 | Djurgardens IF | 23 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 48 | 21 | +27 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF
- 4 May 2026Djurgardens IF 6–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 2 November 2025Djurgardens IF 0–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 12 May 2025IFK Goteborg 1–2 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 2 March 2025Djurgardens IF 3–4 IFK GoteborgSvenska Cupen
- 4 August 2024Djurgardens IF 1–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 1 April 2024IFK Goteborg 1–4 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF
IFK Goteborg
GoalsAssists
- S. Larsson72
- T. Heintz65
Djurgardens IF
GoalsAssists
- K. Lien156
- Bo Åsulv Hegland914
- C. Rosenquist71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
IFK Goteborg carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.76 for Djurgardens IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for IFK Goteborg and 2.00 for Djurgardens IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IFK Goteborg rate 0.62 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Djurgardens IF rate 0.87 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives IFK Goteborg a 0% chance of the title and Djurgardens IF 9.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Djurgardens IF the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for IFK Goteborg against 2.00 for Djurgardens IF. IFK Goteborg's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.05 for Djurgardens IF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
IFK Goteborg at home · Djurgardens IF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: IFK Goteborg 23, Djurgardens IF 23.
IFK Goteborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Djurgardens IF have let in 2 there.
Djurgardens IF score most often in the 0–15 minute window (11 goals); IFK Goteborg have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
IFK Goteborg
- at BK Hacken1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
- vs Malmo FF8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 35%
- at Hammarby FF23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 16%
Djurgardens IF
- vs Degerfors IF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 67%
- at Halmstad8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 68%
- at Sirius22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.