Argentinos Juniors
vs
Independiente Rivadavia
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Argentinos Juniors 1–0 Independiente Rivadavia
The model makes it 51% Argentinos Juniors, 27% draw, 22% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Argentinos Juniors 1.65, Independiente Rivadavia 0.91.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Argentinos Juniors: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Argentinos Juniors are 3rd on 22 points from 12 games; Independiente Rivadavia are 8th on 18 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Argentinos Juniors have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Platense.
- Independiente Rivadavia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Rosario Central.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente Rivadavia 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Independiente Rivadavia 3–1 Argentinos Juniors.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Argentinos Juniors at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinos Juniors
- D1-1away to Platense11 October 2026
- W2-1Tigre4 October 2026
- L0-1away to Rosario Central20 September 2026
- D1-1Gimnasia La Plata13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Barracas Central7 September 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
- L0-5away to Rosario Central11 October 2026
- D1-1Gimnasia La Plata3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Barracas Central21 September 2026
- W4-3Aldosivi12 September 2026
- L1-3away to River Plate6 September 2026
What these results say
- Argentinos Juniors failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Argentinos Juniors conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Argentinos Juniors had two goals or fewer.
- Independiente Rivadavia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Argentinos Juniors | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 22 |
| 8 | Independiente Rivadavia | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Argentinos Juniors
Chance to finish in the top four
Independiente Rivadavia
Chance to finish in the top four
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinos Juniors and Independiente Rivadavia have met 6 times in the records we hold, Independiente Rivadavia has won 3 of them to Argentinos Juniors's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Independiente Rivadavia won the last one 3–1 on 11 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentinos Juniors | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 11 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente Rivadavia 3–1 Argentinos Juniors - 6 Nov 2025
Copa ArgentinaIndependiente Rivadavia 2–2 Argentinos Juniors - 30 Aug 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente Rivadavia 2–1 Argentinos Juniors - 24 Feb 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentinos Juniors 0–0 Independiente Rivadavia - 3 Dec 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente Rivadavia 2–1 Argentinos Juniors - 20 Feb 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalArgentinos Juniors 2–1 Independiente Rivadavia
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Argentinos Juniors | 0.88 | 1.04 |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 0.95 | 1.52 |
Leading scorers: Argentinos Juniors and Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinos Juniors
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Argentinos Juniors carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.63 for Independiente Rivadavia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Argentinos Juniors and 0.91 for Independiente Rivadavia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Argentinos Juniors rate 0.88 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente Rivadavia rate 0.95 and 1.52.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Argentinos Juniors the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Argentinos Juniors against 0.91 for Independiente Rivadavia. Argentinos Juniors's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.52 for Independiente Rivadavia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Argentinos Juniors at home · Independiente Rivadavia away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Argentinos Juniors 30, Independiente Rivadavia 28.
Argentinos Juniors score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Independiente Rivadavia have let in 2 there.
Independiente Rivadavia score most often in the 16–30 minute window (11 goals); Argentinos Juniors have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Argentinos Juniors
- at Atletico Tucuman3 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 36%
- vs Huracan8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 44%
Independiente Rivadavia
- vs Banfield3 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 48%
- at Gimnasia Mendoza8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.