Once Caldas
vs
Alianza Valledupar
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Once Caldas 1–0 Alianza Valledupar
The model makes it 56% Once Caldas, 26% draw, 18% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Once Caldas 1.84, Alianza Valledupar 0.82.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Once Caldas: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Once Caldas are 10th on 16 points from 13 games; Alianza Valledupar are 15th on 12 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- Once Caldas have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Llaneros.
- Alianza Valledupar have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Águilas Doradas.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 September 2026, ended Once Caldas 1–0 Alianza Valledupar.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Once Caldas at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar
Once Caldas
- W1-0Llaneros10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional de Bogota4 October 2026
- L1-3Bucaramanga26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Pasto20 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima16 September 2026
Alianza Valledupar
- D2-2Águilas Doradas9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo Cali3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Jaguares27 September 2026
- L1-4Santa Fe19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chico16 September 2026
What these results say
- Once Caldas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Once Caldas had two goals or fewer.
- Alianza Valledupar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Valledupar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Alianza Valledupar had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar
- 10 September 2026Once Caldas 1–0 Alianza ValleduparCopa Colombia
- 8 February 2026Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 15 August 2025Alianza Valledupar 0–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 2 March 2025Once Caldas 1–2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 6 October 2024Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 25 March 2024Once Caldas 1–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
Leading scorers: Once Caldas and Alianza Valledupar
Once Caldas
GoalsAssists
- D. Moreno151
- J. Zapata112
Alianza Valledupar
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Once Caldas carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.26 for Alianza Valledupar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Once Caldas and 0.82 for Alianza Valledupar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Once Caldas rate 0.68 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alianza Valledupar rate 0.57 and 1.86.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Once Caldas the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Once Caldas against 0.82 for Alianza Valledupar. Once Caldas's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.86 for Alianza Valledupar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Once Caldas at home · Alianza Valledupar away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Once Caldas 34, Alianza Valledupar 32.
Once Caldas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Alianza Valledupar have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Once Caldas
- vs Águilas Doradas7 Nov · Primera Awin 47%
- at Atletico Nacional12 Nov · Primera Awin 17%
Alianza Valledupar
- at Independiente Medellin1 Nov · Primera Awin 16%
- vs Llaneros9 Nov · Primera Awin 37%
- at Millonarios12 Nov · Primera Awin 14%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.