VVV Venlo
vs
Vitesse
KNVB Beker prediction
Our model says: VVV Venlo 1–0 Vitesse
The model makes it 48% VVV Venlo, 27% draw, 25% Vitesse — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: VVV Venlo 1.63, Vitesse 1.05.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- VVV Venlo are 3rd on 21 points from 10 games; Vitesse are 10th on 14 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- VVV Venlo have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Jong Ajax.
- Vitesse are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FC Volendam.
- Last 6 meetings: Vitesse 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Vitesse 2–2 VVV Venlo.
Chance to go through
KNVB Beker Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- VVV Venlo50%
- Level after ninety minutes26%
- Vitesse24%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More KNVB Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VVV Venlo vs Vitesse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VVV Venlo at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VVV Venlo vs Vitesse
VVV Venlo
- W3-0away to Jong Ajax9 October 2026
- W2-0Roda4 October 2026
- L2-3away to FC Volendam26 September 2026
- W3-1away to Jong Utrecht18 September 2026
- W3-1FC OSS11 September 2026
Vitesse
- L0-2away to FC Volendam9 October 2026
- D2-2NAC Breda3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Heracles26 September 2026
- W3-1Jong PSV U2119 September 2026
- L0-1away to Roda12 September 2026
What these results say
- VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- VVV Venlo won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for VVV Venlo had three goals or more.
- Vitesse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vitesse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 21 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VVV Venlo vs Vitesse
- 14 February 2026Vitesse 2–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 31 October 2025VVV Venlo 1–2 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 12 January 2025Vitesse 1–4 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 16 August 2024VVV Venlo 0–1 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 22 July 2022Vitesse 2–2 VVV VenloFriendlies Clubs
- 2 March 2021Vitesse 2–0 VVV VenloKNVB Beker
Leading scorers: VVV Venlo and Vitesse
VVV Venlo
GoalsAssists
- E. Zuliani41
Vitesse
GoalsAssists
- N. Bannis93
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VVV Venlo carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.37 for Vitesse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for VVV Venlo and 1.05 for Vitesse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VVV Venlo rate 0.67 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vitesse rate 0.57 and 1.50.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VVV Venlo the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for VVV Venlo against 1.05 for Vitesse. VVV Venlo's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.5 for Vitesse.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VVV Venlo at home · Vitesse away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: VVV Venlo 10, Vitesse 10.
VVV Venlo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Vitesse have let in 5 there.
Vitesse score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); VVV Venlo have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
VVV Venlo
- at MVV31 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
- vs Jong PSV U216 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 54%
- vs FC Eindhoven14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 56%
- at Den Bosch20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
Vitesse
- at Jong Ajax2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- vs De Graafschap8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 50%
- at MVV15 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
- vs Jong AZ20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.