Independiente
vs
Boca Juniors
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Independiente 0–1 Boca Juniors
The model makes it 31% Independiente, 30% draw, 39% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Independiente 1.05, Boca Juniors 1.26.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Boca Juniors: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Independiente are 7th on 18 points from 12 games; Boca Juniors are 3rd on 21 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Independiente have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Talleres Cordoba.
- Boca Juniors are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Instituto Cordoba.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Boca Juniors 1–1 Independiente.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Independiente vs Boca Juniors
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Boca Juniors at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Independiente vs Boca Juniors
Independiente
- D0-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 October 2026
- L1-4Instituto Cordoba2 October 2026
- W2-1away to Union Santa Fe19 September 2026
- D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
Boca Juniors
- D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba9 October 2026
- W3-0Union Santa Fe3 October 2026
- W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
What these results say
- Independiente scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Boca Juniors had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Independiente | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 18 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Independiente
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
Boca Juniors
Chance to finish in the top four · 77% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Independiente
Boca Juniors and Independiente have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 1 each, with 4 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Boca Juniors on 11 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Independiente | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 9 goals, an average of 1.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 11 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors 1–1 Independiente - 20 May 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors 0–1 Independiente - 14 Dec 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors 0–0 Independiente - 29 Jul 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente 0–2 Boca Juniors - 8 Jan 2023
Friendlies ClubsBoca Juniors 0–0 Independiente - 23 Oct 2022
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors 2–2 Independiente
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 1.08 | 1.06 |
| Independiente | 0.80 | 1.27 |
Leading scorers: Independiente and Boca Juniors
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Independiente carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.86 for Boca Juniors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Independiente and 1.26 for Boca Juniors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente rate 0.80 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boca Juniors rate 1.08 and 1.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente a 0.1% chance of the title and Boca Juniors 12.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Boca Juniors the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Independiente against 1.26 for Boca Juniors. Independiente's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/1.06 for Boca Juniors.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Independiente at home · Boca Juniors away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Independiente 28, Boca Juniors 29.
Independiente score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Boca Juniors have let in 5 there.
Boca Juniors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Independiente have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Independiente
- at Defensa Y Justicia2 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 25%
- vs Deportivo Riestra8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 43%
Boca Juniors
- vs River Plate1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 49%
- vs Defensa Y Justicia8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.