Zenit
vs
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Zenit 2–0 Dinamo Makhachkala
The model makes it 68% Zenit, 19% draw, 13% Dinamo Makhachkala — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Zenit 2.56, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.87.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Zenit are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Zenit are 3rd on 21 points from 10 games; Dinamo Makhachkala are 9th on 12 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Zenit are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to FC Krasnodar.
- Dinamo Makhachkala are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to FC Orenburg.
- Last 6 meetings: Zenit 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Zenit 3–0 Dinamo Makhachkala.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zenit at 68% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Zenit
- W3-2away to FC Krasnodar10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Baltika16 September 2026
- W2-1Lokomotiv12 September 2026
- L1-2CSKA Moscow5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Fakel29 August 2026
Dinamo Makhachkala
- L0-4away to FC Orenburg10 October 2026
- L1-3CSKA Moscow17 September 2026
- L2-3away to Akhmat13 September 2026
- W2-0Rodina Moskva6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rubin30 August 2026
What these results say
- Zenit scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zenit won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zenit conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Zenit | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 21 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zenit
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 37% today
Dinamo Makhachkala
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala
- 2 September 2026Zenit 3–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
- 13 July 2026Zenit 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaFriendlies Clubs
- 1 July 2026Zenit 2–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 ZenitPremier League
- 18 March 2026Zenit 1–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
- 23 August 2025Zenit 4–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
Leading scorers: Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala
Zenit
GoalsAssists
- M. Glushenkov82
- A. Sobolev82
Dinamo Makhachkala
GoalsAssists
- G. Agalarov50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Zenit carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.13 for Dinamo Makhachkala. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.56 goals for Zenit and 0.87 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zenit rate 0.77 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Makhachkala rate 0.51 and 2.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zenit a 37.4% chance of the title and Dinamo Makhachkala 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zenit the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Zenit against 0.87 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Zenit's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.16 for Dinamo Makhachkala.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zenit at home · Dinamo Makhachkala away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Zenit 10, Dinamo Makhachkala 10.
Zenit score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Dinamo Makhachkala have let in 8 there.
Dinamo Makhachkala score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Zenit have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zenit
- at Krylia Sovetov2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- vs FC Rostov8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 65%
- at Rubin21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- at CSKA Moscow28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
Dinamo Makhachkala
- vs FC Rostov1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Baltika8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Spartak Moscow22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at Lokomotiv29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.