AVS
vs
Tondela
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: AVS 1–0 Tondela
The model makes it 43% AVS, 28% draw, 29% Tondela — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: AVS 1.52, Tondela 1.14.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AVS are 12th on 9 points from 7 games; Tondela are 7th on 12 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- AVS have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Penafiel.
- Tondela are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Torreense.
- Last 4 meetings: Tondela 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Tondela 0–0 AVS.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AVS vs Tondela
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AVS at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AVS vs Tondela
AVS
- W2-1away to Penafiel9 October 2026
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa7 September 2026
- W2-0Feirense30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chaves23 August 2026
Tondela
- W1-0Torreense10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026
- W3-0FC Porto B5 September 2026
- L0-2away to União de Leiria28 August 2026
- L0-2Academica21 August 2026
What these results say
- AVS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tondela had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AVS
Chance to finish in the top four · 38% today
Tondela
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: AVS vs Tondela
- 21 March 2026Tondela 0–0 AVSPrimeira Liga
- 2 November 2025AVS 2–2 TondelaPrimeira Liga
- 19 May 2024AVS 0–1 TondelaSegunda Liga
- 14 January 2024Tondela 3–2 AVSSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AVS carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.58 for Tondela. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for AVS and 1.14 for Tondela. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AVS rate 0.74 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tondela rate 0.74 and 1.26.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tondela, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AVS a 9.3% chance of the title and Tondela 14.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AVS the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for AVS against 1.14 for Tondela. AVS's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.26 for Tondela.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AVS at home · Tondela away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: AVS 7, Tondela 7.
AVS score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Tondela have let in 2 there.
Tondela score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); AVS have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AVS
- at União de Leiria31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- vs Vizela6 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 54%
- at Benfica B15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 29%
- vs Leixoes29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 54%
- at Amarante6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 44%
Tondela
- vs Felgueiras 193230 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 54%
- at Sporting CP B8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 34%
- vs Farense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 46%
- at Chaves28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 46%
- vs Penafiel6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.