UCV Moquegua
vs
Alianza Lima
Primera División prediction
Our model says: UCV Moquegua 0–1 Alianza Lima
The model makes it 20% UCV Moquegua, 28% draw, 52% Alianza Lima — fair odds of 5.00, 3.57 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: UCV Moquegua 0.73, Alianza Lima 1.51.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Alianza Lima are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- UCV Moquegua are 17th on 25 points from 28 games; Alianza Lima are top on 59 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- UCV Moquegua have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Cienciano.
- Alianza Lima have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Cusco.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alianza Lima at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima
UCV Moquegua
- L0-2Cienciano8 October 2026
- L0-4away to Juan Pablo II College20 September 2026
- L1-2Sporting Cristal13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cusco5 September 2026
- L1-4Alianza Atletico30 August 2026
Alianza Lima
- W2-1away to Cusco11 October 2026
- W2-0ADT19 September 2026
- L1-2Universitario13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juan Pablo II College6 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Garcilaso30 August 2026
What these results say
- UCV Moquegua did not win any of these 5 matches.
- UCV Moquegua conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Lima scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Lima conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 25 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 28 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 46 | 19 | +27 | 59 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
UCV Moquegua
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 87% today
Alianza Lima
Chance to finish top of the Primera Division: Tabla Anual · 98% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima
- 3 May 2026Alianza Lima 2–1 UCV MoqueguaPrimera División
Leading scorers: UCV Moquegua and Alianza Lima
UCV Moquegua
GoalsAssists
- E. Lastre85
Alianza Lima
GoalsAssists
- E. Castillo175
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
UCV Moquegua carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.61 for Alianza Lima. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.73 goals for UCV Moquegua and 1.51 for Alianza Lima. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
UCV Moquegua rate 0.40 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alianza Lima rate 0.68 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives UCV Moquegua a 0% chance of the title and Alianza Lima 98.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Lima the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.73 expected goals for UCV Moquegua against 1.51 for Alianza Lima. UCV Moquegua's attack/defence rating is 0.4/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.12 for Alianza Lima.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
UCV Moquegua at home · Alianza Lima away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: UCV Moquegua 28, Alianza Lima 28.
UCV Moquegua score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Alianza Lima have let in 5 there.
Alianza Lima score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); UCV Moquegua have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
UCV Moquegua
- at ADT28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
- at Universitario7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 14%
- vs Atletico Grau14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 31%
Alianza Lima
- at Sporting Cristal28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Cienciano31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 56%
- at Club Deportivo Los Chankas7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
- vs FC Cajamarca14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 65%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.