Kyoto Sanga
vs
Newcastle Jets
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Kyoto Sanga 2–1 Newcastle Jets
The model makes it 50% Kyoto Sanga, 24% draw, 26% Newcastle Jets — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kyoto Sanga 2.05, Newcastle Jets 1.36.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kyoto Sanga are 9th on 3 points from 2 games; Newcastle Jets are bottom on 0 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Kyoto Sanga have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Kashiwa Reysol.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kyoto Sanga vs Newcastle Jets
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kyoto Sanga at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kyoto Sanga vs Newcastle Jets
Kyoto Sanga
- W1-0Ratchaburi13 October 2026
- L0-1away to Daejeon Citizen15 September 2026
Newcastle Jets
- L1-3Gamba Osaka13 October 2026
- L1-7away to Kashima15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kyoto Sanga carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.43 for Newcastle Jets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.05 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.36 for Newcastle Jets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kyoto Sanga rate 0.68 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newcastle Jets rate 0.72 and 1.70.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kyoto Sanga the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Kyoto Sanga against 1.36 for Newcastle Jets. Kyoto Sanga's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.7 for Newcastle Jets.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kyoto Sanga
- at Công An Nhân Dân3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- vs Pohang Steelers24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 51%
- at Buriram United1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
- vs Jeonbuk Motors9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 39%
- at Port FC16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 43%
Newcastle Jets
- vs Wellington Phoenix31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 54%
- vs SHANGHAI SIPG3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 49%
- at Perth Glory7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.