Nafta
vs
Aluminij
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Nafta 1–0 Aluminij
The model makes it 47% Nafta, 27% draw, 26% Aluminij — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Nafta 1.61, Aluminij 1.06.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Nafta are 4th on 16 points from 11 games; Aluminij are 7th on 13 points from 11 games — 1. SNL.
- Nafta have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Bravo.
- Aluminij have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Celje.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Aluminij 1–1 Nafta.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nafta vs Aluminij
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nafta at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nafta vs Aluminij
Nafta
- W1-0Bravo11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Koper19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 September 2026
- W3-1Radomlje4 September 2026
- L2-3Maribor30 August 2026
Aluminij
- L0-1away to Celje10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Maribor19 September 2026
- W6-1away to Mura13 September 2026
- D0-0Bravo5 September 2026
- L0-2Celje2 September 2026
What these results say
- Nafta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nafta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminij failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminij conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nafta vs Aluminij
- 9 August 2026Aluminij 1–1 Nafta1. SNL
- 17 March 2023Aluminij 1–1 Nafta2. SNL
- 4 September 2022Nafta 1–3 Aluminij2. SNL
- 30 June 2021Aluminij 2–3 NaftaFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nafta carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.33 for Aluminij. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Nafta and 1.06 for Aluminij. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nafta rate 0.62 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aluminij rate 0.57 and 1.60.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nafta a 1.3% chance of the title and Aluminij 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nafta the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Nafta against 1.06 for Aluminij. Nafta's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.6 for Aluminij.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nafta at home · Aluminij away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Nafta 11, Aluminij 11.
Nafta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Aluminij have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Nafta
- at Celje1 Nov · 1. SNLwin 19%
- vs Olimpija Ljubljana7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 39%
- at Maribor21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 20%
- at Radomlje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 38%
Aluminij
- vs Radomlje31 Oct · 1. SNLwin 52%
- at Brinje-Grosuplje7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 33%
- vs Koper21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 33%
- at Bravo28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.