Chornomorets
vs
Karpaty
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Chornomorets 0–1 Karpaty
The model makes it 25% Chornomorets, 29% draw, 46% Karpaty — fair odds of 4.00, 3.45 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Chornomorets 0.91, Karpaty 1.46.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Karpaty are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chornomorets are 13th on 5 points from 7 games; Karpaty are 5th on 14 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- Chornomorets are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Kharkiv.
- Karpaty have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Dynamo Kyiv.
- Last 6 meetings: Karpaty 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 March 2025, ended Karpaty 4–0 Chornomorets.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chornomorets vs Karpaty
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Karpaty at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chornomorets vs Karpaty
Chornomorets
- L1-2FC Kharkiv10 October 2026
- D1-1Obolon'-Brovar18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk14 September 2026
- D0-0Livyi Bereh4 September 2026
- W1-0Kryvbas KR30 August 2026
Karpaty
- L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv11 October 2026
- D1-1Veres Rivne20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kolos Kovalivka11 September 2026
- L1-2Shakhtar Donetsk5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Livyi Bereh29 August 2026
What these results say
- Chornomorets failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chornomorets had two goals or fewer.
- Karpaty failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karpaty scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karpaty conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Chornomorets
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
Karpaty
Chance to finish in the top four · 52% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Chornomorets vs Karpaty
- 30 March 2025Karpaty 4–0 ChornomoretsPremier League
- 21 September 2024Chornomorets 0–1 KarpatyPremier League
- 21 August 2024Karpaty 3–0 ChornomoretsCup
- 21 May 2019Chornomorets 3–1 KarpatyPremier League
- 23 April 2019Karpaty 0–0 ChornomoretsPremier League
- 28 October 2018Chornomorets 0–5 KarpatyPremier League
Leading scorers: Chornomorets and Karpaty
Chornomorets
GoalsAssists
- K. Popov20
Karpaty
GoalsAssists
- Joaquinete20
- N. Rusyn11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Chornomorets carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.63 for Karpaty. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.91 goals for Chornomorets and 1.46 for Karpaty. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chornomorets rate 0.47 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Karpaty rate 0.76 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chornomorets a 0% chance of the title and Karpaty 2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Karpaty the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Chornomorets against 1.46 for Karpaty. Chornomorets's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.19 for Karpaty.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chornomorets at home · Karpaty away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Chornomorets 7, Karpaty 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Chornomorets
- at Veres Rivne31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at Kudrivka7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
Karpaty
- vs Kudrivka31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 73%
- at FC Kharkiv7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Zorya Luhansk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- vs Polessya28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.