Charlotte
vs
CF Montreal
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Charlotte 2–0 CF Montreal
The model makes it 59% Charlotte, 23% draw, 18% CF Montreal — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Charlotte 2.19, CF Montreal 0.99.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Charlotte: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Charlotte are 5th on 46 points from 28 games; CF Montreal are bottom on 24 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Charlotte have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to FC Dallas.
- CF Montreal have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Toronto FC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 September 2026, ended CF Montreal 1–2 Charlotte.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Charlotte vs CF Montreal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charlotte at 59% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Charlotte vs CF Montreal
Charlotte
- W3-2FC Dallas10 October 2026
- L0-1Chicago Fire26 September 2026
- W2-1away to DC United19 September 2026
- D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
- W2-1away to CF Montreal9 September 2026
CF Montreal
- L1-2away to Toronto FC10 October 2026
- W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
What these results say
- Charlotte conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 46 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlotte vs CF Montreal
- 9 September 2026CF Montreal 1–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 27 September 2025Charlotte 1–4 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025CF Montreal 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2024Charlotte 2–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2024CF Montreal 2–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 15 July 2023CF Montreal 2–0 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Charlotte and CF Montreal
Charlotte
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 50 league goals as a side.
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Charlotte carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.31 for CF Montreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for Charlotte and 0.99 for CF Montreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charlotte rate 0.76 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CF Montreal rate 0.53 and 1.57.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charlotte the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Charlotte against 0.99 for CF Montreal. Charlotte's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.57 for CF Montreal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Charlotte at home · CF Montreal away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Charlotte 27, CF Montreal 27.
Charlotte score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); CF Montreal have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Charlotte
- vs Orlando City SC31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 53%
- at Inter Miami7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 24%
CF Montreal
- at New York City FC31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 20%
- vs Vancouver Whitecaps7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.