Sparta Rotterdam
vs
Ajax
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax
The model makes it 20% Sparta Rotterdam, 22% draw, 58% Ajax — fair odds of 5.00, 4.55 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.11, Ajax 2.26.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Ajax are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Sparta Rotterdam are 14th on 6 points from 8 games; Ajax are 5th on 15 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Sparta Rotterdam have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to GO Ahead Eagles.
- Ajax are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to NEC Nijmegen.
- Last 6 meetings: Ajax 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Ajax 4–0 Sparta Rotterdam.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 58% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
- D3-3away to GO Ahead Eagles10 October 2026
- L0-4Heerenveen19 September 2026
- L1-4away to PSV Eindhoven13 September 2026
- D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Excelsior29 August 2026
Ajax
- D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026
- D2-2Excelsior19 September 2026
- W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
What these results say
- Sparta Rotterdam did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sparta Rotterdam had three goals or more.
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ajax conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ajax.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 6 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sparta Rotterdam
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 33% today
Ajax
Chance to finish in the top four · 66% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax and Sparta Rotterdam have met 6 times in the records we hold, Ajax has won 3 of them to Sparta Rotterdam's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Ajax won the last one 4–0 on 14 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 14 Mar 2026
EredivisieAjax 4–0 Sparta Rotterdam - 4 Oct 2025
EredivisieSparta Rotterdam 3–3 Ajax - 27 Apr 2025
EredivisieAjax 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam - 22 Dec 2024
EredivisieSparta Rotterdam 0–2 Ajax - 17 Mar 2024
EredivisieSparta Rotterdam 2–2 Ajax - 9 Dec 2023
EredivisieAjax 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 1.09 | 0.82 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 0.74 | 1.41 |
Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld51
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare41
- J. Brandt40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sparta Rotterdam carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.99 for Ajax. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.26 for Ajax. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sparta Rotterdam rate 0.74 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ajax rate 1.09 and 0.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sparta Rotterdam a 0% chance of the title and Ajax 5.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam against 2.26 for Ajax. Sparta Rotterdam's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.82 for Ajax.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sparta Rotterdam at home · Ajax away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Sparta RotterdamAjax
Sparta Rotterdam are 12th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 5th and 15th so far); Ajax are 5th after 8 (between 3rd and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Sparta Rotterdam 8, Ajax 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sparta Rotterdam
- vs Fortuna Sittard28 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 39%
- at Groningen1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 19%
- at ADO Den Haag7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
- vs AZ Alkmaar22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 23%
- at Cambuur28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 33%
Ajax
- vs AZ Alkmaar31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 47%
- at FC Midtjylland5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.