Fleetwood Town
vs
Arsenal
League Cup prediction
Our model says: Fleetwood Town 0–3 Arsenal
The model makes it 4% Fleetwood Town, 11% draw, 85% Arsenal — fair odds of 25.00, 9.09 and 1.18. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-3 (15%).
Expected goals: Fleetwood Town 0.40, Arsenal 3.26.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Arsenal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fleetwood Town have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Walsall.
- Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Leeds.
Chance to go through
League Cup Round of 16 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Fleetwood Town2%
- Level after ninety minutes8%
- Arsenal90%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Carabao Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 85% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal
Fleetwood Town
- D1-1Walsall10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City3 October 2026
- L1-2Rochdale26 September 2026
- L1-3away to Barnet19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County12 September 2026
Arsenal
- W3-0Lille13 October 2026
- W2-1Leeds10 October 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Brest9 October 2026
- L0-3away to Brighton19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland12 September 2026
What these results say
- Fleetwood Town did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
A clear gap in the ratings
Fleetwood Town carry a model rating of 6.11 against 7.32 for Arsenal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.40 goals for Fleetwood Town and 3.26 for Arsenal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fleetwood Town rate 0.44 in attack and 1.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arsenal rate 1.40 and 0.56.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 85%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.40 expected goals for Fleetwood Town against 3.26 for Arsenal. Fleetwood Town's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.4/0.56 for Arsenal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fleetwood Town at home · Arsenal away
League matches only, this season — Fleetwood Town in the League Two, Arsenal in the Premier League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Fleetwood Town 10 in the League Two, Arsenal 6 in the Premier League.
Arsenal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Fleetwood Town have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fleetwood Town
- vs Bristol Rovers31 Oct · League Twowin 40%
- vs Tranmere14 Nov · League Twowin 47%
- at Crawley Town21 Nov · League Twowin 39%
Arsenal
- at Liverpool1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Slavia Praha4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
- vs Hull City7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.