Nacional
vs
SC Braga
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Nacional 1–2 SC Braga
The model makes it 22% Nacional, 25% draw, 53% SC Braga — fair odds of 4.55, 4.00 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Nacional 1.05, SC Braga 1.93.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: SC Braga are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Nacional are 16th on 4 points from 8 games; SC Braga are 9th on 11 points from 7 games — Primeira Liga.
- Nacional have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Rio Ave.
- SC Braga have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Sporting CP.
- Last 6 meetings: SC Braga 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Nacional 1–2 SC Braga.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nacional vs SC Braga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Braga at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nacional vs SC Braga
Nacional
- L2-3away to Rio Ave11 October 2026
- L0-4Famalicao19 September 2026
- L1-3Alverca12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sporting CP5 September 2026
- L2-3Estrela30 August 2026
SC Braga
- L1-3Sporting CP9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Santa Clara20 September 2026
- W1-0Estoril14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estrela10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
What these results say
- Nacional did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Nacional conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nacional had three goals or more.
- SC Braga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Nacional
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
SC Braga
Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today
From our Primeira Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Nacional vs SC Braga
Nacional and SC Braga have met 6 times in the records we hold, SC Braga has won 5 of them to Nacional's 1.
The record
SC Braga won the last one 2–1 on 28 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| SC Braga | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 28 Feb 2026
Primeira LigaNacional 1–2 SC Braga - 23 Nov 2025
Taça de PortugalSC Braga 4–2 Nacional - 28 Sep 2025
Primeira LigaSC Braga 0–1 Nacional - 21 Feb 2025
Primeira LigaSC Braga 1–0 Nacional - 20 Sep 2024
Primeira LigaNacional 0–3 SC Braga - 22 Dec 2023
Taça da LigaNacional 1–3 SC Braga
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Nacional and SC Braga
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
SC Braga
GoalsAssists
- Pau Victor31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nacional carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.97 for SC Braga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Nacional and 1.93 for SC Braga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nacional rate 0.78 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Braga rate 1.14 and 0.89.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nacional a 0% chance of the title and SC Braga 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Nacional against 1.93 for SC Braga. Nacional's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.89 for SC Braga.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nacional at home · SC Braga away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Nacional 8, SC Braga 7.
Nacional score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); SC Braga have let in 2 there.
SC Braga score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Nacional have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nacional
- at Arouca1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 21%
- vs Academico Viseu7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 29%
- at Maritimo27 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 28%
- vs Benfica6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 12%
- at Casa Pia13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 38%
SC Braga
- vs Famalicao1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 49%
- at Aarhus5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.