26 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Ligue 1 prediction & result

Parc des Princes, Paris
Referee: Jerome Brisard
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Lyon.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Paris Saint Germain, 24% draw, 21% Lyon — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Paris Saint Germain at 55% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paris Saint Germain99%Draw1%Lyon0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Vitinha
31'
Maghnes Akliouche
51'
🔁João Nevesout: Mika Godts
57'
🔁Warren Zaire-Emeryout: Lucas Hernández
65'
🔁Ferrán Torresout: Senny Mayulu
65'
⚽Senny Mayuluassist: Mika Godts
72'
74'
Ernest Nuamah
76'
🔁Khalis Merahout: Noah Teye Nartey
76'
🔁Corentin Tolissoout: Ruben Kluivert
🔁Maghnes Aklioucheout: Quentin Ndjantou
81'
🔁Désiré Doueout: Lucas Beraldo
81'
81'
🔁Julien Duranvilleout: Kail Boudache
⚽Mika Godtsassist: Quentin Ndjantou
84'
90+1'
🔁Tyler Mortonout: Remi Himbert

Match stats — Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon

68%Possession32%
17Shots8
10On target5
7Corners4
0.96xG0.69

Goals against chances

Paris Saint Germain2 from 0.96 xGmore than the chances were worth
Lyon0 from 0.69 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
  • 39M. SafonovG
  • 2A. HakimiD
  • 6I. ZabarnyiD
  • 51W. PachoD
  • 33W. Zaïre-EmeryD
  • 87João NevesM
  • 17VitinhaM
  • 8Fabián RuizM
  • 11M. AklioucheF
  • 9Ferran TorresF
  • 14D. DouéF
Substitutes
  • 4BeraldoD
  • 42D. BolyD
  • 30L. ChevalierG
  • 12L. DigneD
  • 27Pedro FernándezM
  • 22M. GodtsF
  • 21L. HernándezD
  • 24Senny MayuluM
  • 47Quentin Ndjantou MbitchaF
Coach: Luis Enrique
Lyon 4-3-3
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 19M. NiakhatéD
  • 16AbnerD
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 7E. NuamahF
  • 18K. MerahF
  • 24J. DuranvilleF
Substitutes
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 44A. HamdaniF
  • 45R. HimbertF
  • 85N. KamaraD
  • 22Clinton MataD
Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon

Paris Saint Germain

Ligue 1

  • W3-1away to Strasbourg17 October 2026
  • W3-1Le Mans10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Marseille20 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Stade Brestois 2913 September 2026

Lyon

Ligue 1

  • W2-1Nice18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Lens9 October 2026
  • W4-0Rennes19 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Paris Saint Germain won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Paris Saint Germain conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lyon scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Lyon had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain8521169+717
5Lyon8422137+614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon

  • 19 April 2026Paris Saint Germain 1–2 LyonLigue 1
  • 9 November 2025Lyon 2–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • 23 February 2025Lyon 2–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • 15 December 2024Paris Saint Germain 3–1 LyonLigue 1
  • 25 May 2024Lyon 1–2 Paris Saint GermainCoupe de France
  • 21 April 2024Paris Saint Germain 4–1 LyonLigue 1

The full Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon record →

Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Lyon

Paris Saint Germain

GoalsAssists

  • Ferran Torres41
  • Marquinhos30

Lyon

GoalsAssists

  • E. Nuamah31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paris Saint Germain beat Lyon 2–0. The model had made a win for Paris Saint Germain its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Senny Mayulu 72' for Paris Saint Germain, Mika Godts 84' for Paris Saint Germain. On expected goals it finished 0.96–0.69.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Paris Saint Germain a 63.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 67.7% after a win, 59.6% after a draw, 53.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.7%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.

For Lyon the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 28.3% going in: 38.2% after a win, 28.6% after a draw, 24.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.9%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.