Regular Season - 26 · 28 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Halmstad vs Malmo FF Allsvenskan prediction

Orjans Vall, Halmstad

Our model says: Halmstad 0–1 Malmo FF

The model makes it 21% Halmstad, 26% draw, 53% Malmo FF — fair odds of 4.76, 3.85 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).

Expected goals: Halmstad 0.90, Malmo FF 1.75.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: High.

One-sided: Malmo FF are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Key facts

  • Halmstad are bottom on 14 points from 23 games; Malmo FF are 6th on 36 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
  • Halmstad have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to IF Elfsborg.
  • Malmo FF have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Kalmar FF.
  • Last 6 meetings: Malmo FF 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Malmo FF 5–2 Halmstad.

More Allsvenskan predictions

All Allsvenskan predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Halmstad vs Malmo FF

50%
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Halmstad win Draw Malmo FF win
  1. 0–112%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 0–211%
  4. 1–210%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 0–36%
  7. 1–06%

Scores read Halmstad first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 36%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Malmo FF at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Halmstad vs Malmo FF

Halmstad

  • L0-4away to IF Elfsborg12 October 2026
  • W2-1AIK Stockholm20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to IFK Goteborg12 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Degerfors IF5 September 2026
  • W1-0Kalmar FF29 August 2026

Malmo FF

  • W1-0Kalmar FF12 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK19 September 2026
  • W4-1Orgryte IS13 September 2026
  • D0-0AIK Stockholm7 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Sirius31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Halmstad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Malmo FF had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Halmstad2335151644-2814
6Malmo FF2311393833+536

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Halmstad vs Malmo FF

  • 30 May 2026Malmo FF 5–2 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 8 March 2026Malmo FF 2–1 HalmstadSvenska Cupen
  • 16 August 2025Halmstad 0–4 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 18 May 2025Malmo FF 3–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 10 August 2024Halmstad 0–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 7 July 2024Malmo FF 5–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Halmstad and Malmo FF

Halmstad

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Malmo FF

GoalsAssists

  • E. Botheim103

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Halmstad carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.46 for Malmo FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 0.90 goals for Halmstad and 1.75 for Malmo FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Halmstad rate 0.38 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Malmo FF rate 0.67 and 1.45.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Malmo FF the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Halmstad against 1.75 for Malmo FF. Halmstad's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.45 for Malmo FF.

Season stats

HalmstadMalmo FF
23Matches23
3W 5D 15LRecord11W 3D 9L
16 0.7 per gameGoals scored38 1.7 per game
44 1.9 per gameGoals conceded33 1.4 per game
2 of 23Clean sheets8 of 23
10 of 23Failed to score3 of 23
2 of 2Penalties scored0 of 1
31 1.3 per gameYellow cards50 2.2 per game
1Red cards1
4-4-2 14×Usual shape4-1-4-1 8×

Halmstad at home · Malmo FF away

11Played11
3W 2D 6LRecord6W 2D 3L
9–18Goals for – against13–13
2 of 11Clean sheets5 of 11

League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Allsvenskan matches this season: Halmstad 23, Malmo FF 23.

Halmstad scored 323233
Malmo FF conceded 847646
Malmo FF scored 376884
Halmstad conceded 46413710

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Halmstad

  • at Sirius3 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 10%
  • vs Djurgardens IF8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 11%
  • at IF Brommapojkarna22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 18%

Malmo FF

  • vs Hammarby FF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 28%
  • at IFK Goteborg8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 38%
  • at Mjallby AIF21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 40%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.