Virtus Entella
vs
Avellino
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Virtus Entella 1–0 Avellino
The model makes it 39% Virtus Entella, 29% draw, 32% Avellino — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Virtus Entella 1.33, Avellino 1.13.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Virtus Entella are 14th on 6 points from 6 games; Avellino are 6th on 10 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Virtus Entella are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Juve Stabia.
- Avellino have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Sampdoria.
- Last 6 meetings: Avellino 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Virtus Entella 1–2 Avellino.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Virtus Entella vs Avellino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Virtus Entella at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Virtus Entella vs Avellino
Virtus Entella
- D1-1Juve Stabia10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Cremonese19 September 2026
- W4-1away to Pisa11 September 2026
- D2-2Vicenza Virtus6 September 2026
- L1-2Cesena29 August 2026
Avellino
- W4-1Sampdoria9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Ascoli19 September 2026
- D1-1Palermo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
- W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026
What these results say
- Virtus Entella failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Virtus Entella scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Virtus Entella conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Avellino scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Virtus Entella
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
Avellino
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Virtus Entella vs Avellino
- 15 March 2026Virtus Entella 1–2 AvellinoSerie B
- 27 September 2025Avellino 2–0 Virtus EntellaSerie B
- 10 May 2025Virtus Entella 1–1 AvellinoSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
- 14 April 2018Virtus Entella 1–1 AvellinoSerie B
- 11 November 2017Avellino 0–0 Virtus EntellaSerie B
- 28 January 2017Avellino 2–2 Virtus EntellaSerie B
Leading scorers: Virtus Entella and Avellino
Virtus Entella
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo42
- M. Besaggio30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Virtus Entella carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.53 for Avellino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Virtus Entella and 1.13 for Avellino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Virtus Entella rate 0.64 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Avellino rate 0.73 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Avellino, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Virtus Entella a 0.4% chance of the title and Avellino 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Virtus Entella the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Virtus Entella against 1.13 for Avellino. Virtus Entella's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.39 for Avellino.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Virtus Entella at home · Avellino away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Virtus Entella 6, Avellino 6.
Virtus Entella score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Avellino have let in 0 there.
Avellino score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Virtus Entella have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Virtus Entella
- at Sampdoria31 Oct · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Modena8 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
- at Carrarese21 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
Avellino
- vs Pisa1 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Benevento7 Nov · Serie Bwin 24%
- vs Mantova21 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.