Regular Season - 8 · 27 October 2026, 12:40 UTC

Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC Pro League prediction

Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Abha

Our model says: Abha 1–2 Al-Faisaly FC

The model makes it 36% Abha, 27% draw, 37% Al-Faisaly FC — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Abha 1.42, Al-Faisaly FC 1.43.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 939 settled matches.

A tight game: Abha and Al-Faisaly FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Abha's rating is built from 8 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Faisaly FC's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 699 matches.

Key facts

  • Abha are bottom on 2 points from 8 games; Al-Faisaly FC are 15th on 7 points from 9 games — Pro League.
  • Abha have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Al-Qadisiyah FC.
  • Al-Faisaly FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Al Shabab.
  • Last 6 meetings: Abha 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 21 January 2026, ended Al-Faisaly FC 0–2 Abha.

More Saudi Pro League predictions

All Saudi Pro League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC

58%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Abha win Draw Al-Faisaly FC win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–28%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 1–08%
  6. 0–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Abha first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 44%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al-Faisaly FC at 37% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC

Abha

Pro League

  • L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Al-Nassr9 September 2026
  • L0-1Al-Ettifaq4 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Al-Fayha28 August 2026

Al-Faisaly FC

Pro League

  • D2-2away to Al Shabab19 October 2026
  • W3-2Al Kholood15 October 2026
  • L1-3Al-Ittihad11 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Al-Ettifaq8 September 2026
  • D0-0Al-Hazm5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Abha did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Abha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Al-Faisaly FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Abha8026615-92
15Al-Faisaly FC91441017-77

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Abha

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today

Win 43%
Draw 53%
Defeat 60%

Al-Faisaly FC

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 24% today

Win 18%
Draw 23%
Defeat 30%

From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC

  • 21 January 2026Al-Faisaly FC 0–2 AbhaDivision 1
  • 11 September 2025Abha 2–2 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
  • 18 February 2025Al-Faisaly FC 2–2 AbhaDivision 1
  • 1 October 2024Abha 3–1 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
  • 6 May 2022Abha 0–0 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
  • 4 November 2021Al-Faisaly FC 1–0 AbhaPro League

Leading scorers: Abha and Al-Faisaly FC

Abha

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Al-Faisaly FC

GoalsAssists

  • Alexandre Mendy51

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Abha carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.44 for Al-Faisaly FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Abha and 1.43 for Al-Faisaly FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Abha rate 0.57 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Faisaly FC rate 0.67 and 1.52.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

How the call on Abha v Al-Faisaly FC has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 36% / 27% / 37%: the biggest move is Al-Faisaly FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Abha win36%=
  2. Draw27%▼ −3
  3. Al-Faisaly FC win37%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al-Faisaly FC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Abha against 1.43 for Al-Faisaly FC. Abha's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.52 for Al-Faisaly FC.

How the model reaches 37% for Al-Faisaly FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Faisaly FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Abha's ratings add 26 points and Al-Faisaly FC's ratings take away 23 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage34%−3
  3. Abha's ratings60%+26
  4. Al-Faisaly FC's ratings37%−23

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

AbhaAl-Faisaly FC
8Matches9
0W 2D 6LRecord1W 4D 4L
6 0.8 per gameGoals scored10 1.1 per game
15 1.9 per gameGoals conceded17 1.9 per game
1 of 8Clean sheets2 of 9
3 of 8Failed to score3 of 9
1 of 1Penalties scored–
17 2.1 per gameYellow cards17 1.9 per game
0Red cards1
5-4-1 2×Usual shape4-1-4-1 5×

Abha at home · Al-Faisaly FC away

3Played4
0W 1D 2LRecord0W 2D 2L
2–4Goals for – against5–9
0 of 3Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Pro League matches this season: Abha 8, Al-Faisaly FC 9.

Abha scored 010024
Al-Faisaly FC conceded 282301

Abha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Al-Faisaly FC have let in 1 there.

Al-Faisaly FC scored 202313
Abha conceded 332410

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Abha

Al-Faisaly FC

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.