Universidad de Concepcion
vs
Deportes Limache
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universidad de Concepcion 0–1 Deportes Limache
The model makes it 29% Universidad de Concepcion, 28% draw, 43% Deportes Limache — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Universidad de Concepcion 1.11, Deportes Limache 1.50.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Deportes Limache: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Universidad de Concepcion are 15th on 23 points from 24 games; Deportes Limache are 6th on 34 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Universidad de Concepcion are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cobresal.
- Deportes Limache have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Palestino.
- Last 3 meetings: Universidad de Concepcion 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Deportes Limache 3–0 Universidad de Concepcion.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Limache at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache
Universidad de Concepcion
- D1-1away to Cobresal10 October 2026
- L0-2Huachipato2 October 2026
- L1-2away to Palestino6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Coquimbo Unido2 September 2026
- W2-1Universidad de Chile30 August 2026
Deportes Limache
- D2-2Palestino11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Union La Calera14 September 2026
- W3-0Cobresal7 September 2026
- W2-0Nublense3 September 2026
- L0-3Everton de Vina29 August 2026
What these results say
- Universidad de Concepcion conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad de Concepcion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 23 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Universidad de Concepcion
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 91% today
Deportes Limache
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache
- 18 April 2026Deportes Limache 3–0 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
- 5 August 2024Universidad de Concepcion 2–0 Deportes LimachePrimera B
- 24 March 2024Deportes Limache 0–1 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera B
Leading scorers: Universidad de Concepcion and Deportes Limache
Universidad de Concepcion
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Deportes Limache
GoalsAssists
- D. Castro137
- G. Sosa80
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Universidad de Concepcion carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.45 for Deportes Limache. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Universidad de Concepcion and 1.50 for Deportes Limache. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universidad de Concepcion rate 0.41 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportes Limache rate 0.73 and 1.62.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes Limache the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Universidad de Concepcion against 1.50 for Deportes Limache. Universidad de Concepcion's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.62 for Deportes Limache.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universidad de Concepcion at home · Deportes Limache away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universidad de Concepcion 24, Deportes Limache 24.
Universidad de Concepcion score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Deportes Limache have let in 4 there.
Deportes Limache score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Universidad de Concepcion have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Universidad de Concepcion
- at Colo Colo1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 12%
- vs O'Higgins8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Nublense22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- at Union La Calera29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Universidad Catolica6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
Deportes Limache
- vs Audax Italiano1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 49%
- at Universidad Catolica8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
- vs Deportes La Serena22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 53%
- at Coquimbo Unido29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Concepción6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.