Real Sociedad
vs
Levante
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Real Sociedad 2–1 Levante
The model makes it 54% Real Sociedad, 22% draw, 24% Levante — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Real Sociedad 2.32, Levante 1.38.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Real Sociedad are 6th on 13 points from 8 games; Levante are 17th on 6 points from 7 games — La Liga.
- Real Sociedad have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Deportivo La Coruna.
- Levante are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Sevilla.
- Last 6 meetings: Real Sociedad 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Real Sociedad 2–0 Levante.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Sociedad vs Levante
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Levante
Real Sociedad
- W3-2Deportivo La Coruna11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Valencia20 September 2026
- L0-3Atletico Madrid13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
Levante
- D3-3Sevilla12 October 2026
- L1-3away to Villarreal20 September 2026
- L2-4Barcelona13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malaga6 September 2026
- W5-2Real Betis29 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Real Sociedad had three goals or more.
- Levante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levante scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levante conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Real Sociedad
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
Levante
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Levante vs Real Sociedad
Levante and Real Sociedad have met 6 times in the records we hold, Real Sociedad has won 3 of them to Levante's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Real Sociedad won the last one 2–0 on 4 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 4 Apr 2026
La LigaReal Sociedad 2–0 Levante - 20 Dec 2025
La LigaLevante 1–1 Real Sociedad - 6 May 2022
La LigaLevante 2–1 Real Sociedad - 28 Aug 2021
La LigaReal Sociedad 1–0 Levante - 7 Mar 2021
La LigaReal Sociedad 1–0 Levante - 19 Dec 2020
La LigaLevante 2–1 Real Sociedad
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | 1.01 | 1.16 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.23 | 1.11 |
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Levante
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić30
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui31
- Iván Romero30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Sociedad carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.78 for Levante. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.38 for Levante. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Sociedad rate 1.23 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levante rate 1.01 and 1.16.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Real Sociedad against 1.38 for Levante. Real Sociedad's attack/defence rating is 1.23/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1.16 for Levante.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Real Sociedad at home · Levante away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Real SociedadLevante
Real Sociedad are 6th after 8 La Liga matches (between 6th and 20th so far); Levante are 17th after 7 (between 8th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Real Sociedad 8, Levante 7.
Real Sociedad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Levante have let in 3 there.
Levante score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Real Sociedad have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Real Sociedad
- at Athletic Club1 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
- vs Lyon5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 43%
Levante
- vs Atletico Madrid31 Oct · La Ligawin 26%
- at Celta Vigo8 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Elche22 Nov · La Ligawin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.