Genoa
vs
Venezia
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Genoa 1–0 Venezia
The model makes it 50% Genoa, 26% draw, 24% Venezia — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Genoa 1.76, Venezia 1.05.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Genoa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Genoa are 17th on 4 points from 6 games; Venezia are bottom on 0 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Genoa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Fiorentina.
- Venezia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Atalanta.
- Last 6 meetings: Genoa 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 February 2025, ended Genoa 2–0 Venezia.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Genoa vs Venezia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Genoa at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Genoa vs Venezia
Genoa
- W2-1Fiorentina10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Parma20 September 2026
- D1-1Frosinone12 September 2026
- L1-4Como4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lazio30 August 2026
Venezia
- L1-3away to Atalanta12 October 2026
- L0-2Lazio19 September 2026
- L2-4Fiorentina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Frosinone6 September 2026
- L0-2away to AC Milan28 August 2026
What these results say
- Genoa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Genoa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Genoa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Venezia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Venezia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Genoa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
Venezia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 92% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Venezia
Genoa and Venezia have met 6 times in the records we hold, Genoa has won 4 of them to Venezia's 2.
The record
Genoa won the last one 2–0 on 17 Feb 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Venezia | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 17 Feb 2025
Serie AGenoa 2–0 Venezia - 21 Sep 2024
Serie AVenezia 2–0 Genoa - 20 Jul 2024
Friendlies ClubsVenezia 1–3 Genoa - 22 Jul 2023
Friendlies ClubsGenoa 1–4 Venezia - 16 Jan 2023
Serie BGenoa 1–0 Venezia - 14 Aug 2022
Serie BVenezia 1–2 Genoa
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Genoa and Venezia
Genoa
GoalsAssists
- M. Osmajić31
Venezia
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Genoa carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.54 for Venezia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Genoa and 1.05 for Venezia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Genoa rate 0.84 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Venezia rate 0.80 and 1.51.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Genoa the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Genoa against 1.05 for Venezia. Genoa's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.51 for Venezia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Genoa at home · Venezia away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GenoaVenezia
Genoa are 17th after 6 Serie A matches (between 16th and 19th so far); Venezia are 20th after 6 (between 18th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Genoa 6, Venezia 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Genoa
- vs Juventus28 Oct · Serie Awin 19%
- at Lecce1 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
- vs AC Milan8 Nov · Serie Awin 21%
- at Sassuolo22 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
Venezia
- vs Inter28 Oct · Serie Awin 8%
- at Como1 Nov · Serie Awin 10%
- vs Udinese6 Nov · Serie Awin 24%
- at Juventus23 Nov · Serie Awin 9%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.