Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
vs
Esteghlal FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–0 Esteghlal FC
The model makes it 45% Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 28% draw, 27% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.50, Esteghlal FC 1.06.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 4th on 6 points from 2 games; Esteghlal FC are 2nd on 6 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Dubai United.
- Esteghlal FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Tractor Sazi.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Esteghlal FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Esteghlal FC
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- W2-1away to Al-Ittihad13 October 2026
- W1-0Tractor Sazi14 September 2026
Esteghlal FC
- W2-1away to Al-Gharafa12 October 2026
- W3-0Al Sadd14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Esteghlal FC
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Esteghlal FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Asani21
- E. Saitmuratov10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.69 for Esteghlal FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.06 for Esteghlal FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai rate 0.82 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Esteghlal FC rate 0.73 and 1.03.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Esteghlal FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai against 1.06 for Esteghlal FC. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.03 for Esteghlal FC.
Season stats
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home · Esteghlal FC away
League matches only, this season — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in the Pro League, Esteghlal FC in the Persian Gulf Pro League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5 in the Pro League, Esteghlal FC 8 in the Persian Gulf Pro League.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Esteghlal FC have let in 0 there.
Esteghlal FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- vs Al-Ittihad Kalba30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 67%
- at Al-Hilal3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 13%
- at Sharjah FC7 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 54%
- vs Ajman20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 61%
Esteghlal FC
- vs Shams Azar Qazvin30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 62%
- vs Al Shamal3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 63%
- at Esteghlal Khuzestan7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.