Tecnico Universitario
vs
Mushuc Runa SC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Tecnico Universitario 1–2 Mushuc Runa SC
The model makes it 36% Tecnico Universitario, 27% draw, 37% Mushuc Runa SC — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Tecnico Universitario 1.41, Mushuc Runa SC 1.44.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Tecnico Universitario and Mushuc Runa SC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Tecnico Universitario are 14th on 33 points from 32 games; Mushuc Runa SC are 11th on 39 points from 32 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Tecnico Universitario have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Manta FC.
- Mushuc Runa SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Delfin SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Mushuc Runa SC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 August 2026, ended Tecnico Universitario 0–3 Mushuc Runa SC.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mushuc Runa SC at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
- L0-1away to Manta FC10 October 2026
- D1-1Delfin SC20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Leones del Norte13 September 2026
- L1-3LDU de Quito5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Delfin SC1 September 2026
Mushuc Runa SC
- L2-3away to Delfin SC9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Cuenca20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Guayaquil City FC12 September 2026
- D1-1Leones del Norte8 September 2026
- D0-0away to LDU de Quito2 September 2026
What these results say
- Tecnico Universitario failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tecnico Universitario conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tecnico Universitario had two goals or fewer.
- Mushuc Runa SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mushuc Runa SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mushuc Runa SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 32 | 10 | 3 | 19 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 33 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Tecnico Universitario
Chance to win the league · 3% today
Mushuc Runa SC
Chance to win the league · 66% today
From our Liga Pro season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC
- 10 August 2026Tecnico Universitario 0–3 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 18 April 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
- 22 November 2025Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
- 1 November 2025Tecnico Universitario 0–0 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 27 July 2025Mushuc Runa SC 0–1 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
- 6 April 2025Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
The two sides
Tecnico Universitario carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.41 for Mushuc Runa SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Tecnico Universitario and 1.44 for Mushuc Runa SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tecnico Universitario rate 0.53 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mushuc Runa SC rate 0.67 and 1.63.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mushuc Runa SC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Tecnico Universitario against 1.44 for Mushuc Runa SC. Tecnico Universitario's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.63 for Mushuc Runa SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tecnico Universitario at home · Mushuc Runa SC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Tecnico Universitario 31, Mushuc Runa SC 32.
Tecnico Universitario score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Mushuc Runa SC have let in 5 there.
Mushuc Runa SC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Tecnico Universitario have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Tecnico Universitario
- at Orense SC1 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
- vs Manta FC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 43%
- vs Deportivo Cuenca22 Nov · Liga Prowin 38%
- at Mushuc Runa SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 21%
Mushuc Runa SC
- vs Manta FC1 Nov · Liga Prowin 53%
- vs Delfin SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 49%
- at Orense SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
- vs Tecnico Universitario29 Nov · Liga Prowin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.