Al-Qadisiyah FC
vs
Al Sadd
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–1 Al Sadd
The model makes it 76% Al-Qadisiyah FC, 13% draw, 11% Al Sadd — fair odds of 1.32, 7.69 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.86, Al Sadd 1.29.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%, under 2.5: 12%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Qadisiyah FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Qadisiyah FC are 6th on 4 points from 2 games; Al Sadd are bottom on 0 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-0 win away to Al Kholood.
- Al Sadd have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Al-Arabi SC.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Sadd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Qadisiyah FC at 76% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Sadd
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- D1-1away to Pakhtakor12 October 2026
- W2-1Al-Wasl FC14 September 2026
Al Sadd
- L0-2Al-Hilal13 October 2026
- L0-3away to Esteghlal FC14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 16 | Al Sadd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.62 for Al Sadd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.86 goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.29 for Al Sadd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Qadisiyah FC rate 1.25 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Sadd rate 1.01 and 1.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.86 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 1.29 for Al Sadd. Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack/defence rating is 1.25/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1.74 for Al Sadd.
Season stats
Al-Qadisiyah FC at home · Al Sadd away
League matches only, this season — Al-Qadisiyah FC in the Pro League, Al Sadd in the Stars League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Al-Qadisiyah FC 8 in the Pro League, Al Sadd 5 in the Stars League.
Al-Qadisiyah FC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Al Sadd have let in 2 there.
Al Sadd score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Al-Qadisiyah FC have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- at Al Riyadh29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 71%
- at Al-Gharafa2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 68%
Al Sadd
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 30%
- vs Al Shamal6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 57%
- at Al-Rayyan SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.