Amiens
vs
Thionville Lusitanos
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Amiens 2–1 Thionville Lusitanos
The model makes it 53% Amiens, 23% draw, 24% Thionville Lusitanos — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Amiens 2.23, Thionville Lusitanos 1.32.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Amiens are 5th on 15 points from 9 games; Thionville Lusitanos are 9th on 12 points from 9 games — Ligue 3.
- Amiens are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Villefranche.
- Thionville Lusitanos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Le Puy Foot.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amiens at 53% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos
Amiens
- W3-0Villefranche3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Quevilly26 September 2026
- W2-0Orleans19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Cannes10 September 2026
- W3-0away to Bastia5 September 2026
Thionville Lusitanos
- L0-1away to Le Puy Foot3 October 2026
- L1-2La Roche VF26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fleury 9119 September 2026
- L0-4Rouen12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Concarneau5 September 2026
What these results say
- Amiens went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Amiens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amiens kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Thionville Lusitanos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Thionville Lusitanos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Amiens | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 15 |
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Amiens carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.15 for Thionville Lusitanos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for Amiens and 1.32 for Thionville Lusitanos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Amiens rate 0.58 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Thionville Lusitanos rate 0.57 and 2.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Amiens a 8% chance of the title and Thionville Lusitanos 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amiens the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Amiens against 1.32 for Thionville Lusitanos. Amiens's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.36 for Thionville Lusitanos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Amiens at home · Thionville Lusitanos away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Amiens 9, Thionville Lusitanos 9.
Amiens score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Thionville Lusitanos have let in 6 there.
Thionville Lusitanos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Amiens have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Amiens
- at Aubagne7 Nov · Ligue 3win 42%
- vs Caen19 Nov · Ligue 3win 49%
- at Bourg-en-bresse 015 Dec · Ligue 3win 49%
- vs Gobelins12 Dec · Ligue 3win 58%
Thionville Lusitanos
- vs Cannes7 Nov · Ligue 3win 28%
- at Orleans21 Nov · Ligue 3win 30%
- vs Quevilly5 Dec · Ligue 3win 48%
- at Villefranche12 Dec · Ligue 3win 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.